Buy Adani Green Energy, target price Rs 1,150: ICICI Securities

ICICI Securities has a buy call on Adani Green Energy with a target price of Rs 1,150. The current market price of Adani Green Energy is Rs 916.65 .

Financials

Adani Green Energy reported strong set of result in Q4FY25. Revenue was Rs 27 billion (+31% YoY), in line with higher generation (+44% YoY). EBITDA came in at Rs 24 billion (+31% YoY) and profit was INR 3.9bn (+25% YoY). Profit was partly impacted by exceptional losses of INR 1.66bn booked during the quarter. FY25 revenue/EBITDA was up 23% YoY at Rs 99 billion/90 billion as generation improved by 28%. The company commissioned 2.6GW capacity in Q4FY25 (2.3GW/0.3GWsolar/wind); this substantially improved the annual commissioning to 3.3GW. Commissioning at Khavda (in Gujarat) was 1.7GW/2.1GW in Q4FY25/FY25, taking the operational capacity to 4.1GW at Khavda. AGEL is targeting to achieve 30GW of operational capacity at Khavda by 2029.


Investment Rationale
Adani Green Energy had a strong Q4FY25 both operationally and financially. It commissioned ~2.6GW/3.3GW in Q4FY25/FY25, taking operational capacity to 14.2GW. Its locked-in generation capacity soared by 50% to ~33GW (vs ~22GW as of Mar?24). AGEL?s energy sales were up 28% in FY25, mainly due to contribution from incremental capacity. In Q4, its revenue was Rs 27 billion (+31% YoY), in line with higher generation; EBITDA came in at Rs 24 billion (+31% YoY) and profit was Rs 3.9 billion (+25% YoY). It plans to achieve 50GW operational capacity by 2030 ? 45GW generation capacity and 5GW PSP capacity; it is targeting 30GW operational capacity at Khavda by 2029. AGEL has guided for capacity addition of 5GW in FY26. The stock is trading at 12x locked-in EBITDA. Retain BUY with a target price of Rs 1,150.

Promoter/FII Holdings
Promoters held 60.94 per cent stake in the company as of 31-Mar-2025, while FIIs owned 12.45 per cent, DIIs 2.4 per cent.