Will RBI announce steep rate hikes? Nomura sees up to 50 bps increase by Dec, dismisses 125 bps hike fears

While markets are pricing in steep rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the near future, Nomura suggested that this cycle is fundamentally different and expects policy fine-tuning instead, with the international brokerage seeing a higher chance of a cumulative 50 bps rate hike.

The RBI is set to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting next week from October 5 to October 7. Nomura, in its latest report, noted that the Indian central bank’s monetary policy is at an inflection point. While India has so far sidestepped the rate hikes seen in other Asian economies, higher oil prices, a surge in food prices and Fed rate hikes have brought the RBI's monetary policy to this point.

Nomura disagrees with market's 125 bps rate hike expectations

While the stock market is pricing in close to 125 basis points of rate hikes over the next one year, the international brokerage has a contrarian view. India's trend inflation has moderated, Nomura's inflation generalisation index confirms no signs of broadening, and its leading index signals below-trend growth ahead.


It sees an 80% chance of the RBI announcing a rate hike of 25-50 basis points by December, with less chance of the rate hikes spilling over to February. The international brokerage sees a 20% chance of the Indian central bank hiking rates by more than 75 basis points in one year.

Also read | RBI may hike repo rate 25 bps each in October, December, analysts say

Nomura's inflation generalisation index, a summary measure of ten variables covering inflation momentum, diffusion, inflation expectations and wage dynamics, stood at 92.6 in August, up from 84.8 in January but below the average mark of 100, confirming no signs of broadening. “We expect the cyclical pressures from food and energy prices to push up inflation over the next six months, but as they dampen demand, inflation should return to target,” it added.

Food inflation, however, is the biggest risk to the near-term inflation outlook, Nomura noted, adding that government policy actions on the supply side may temper some of the price increase, but lower crop output suggests upside risks to food prices for now.

Nomura forecast India’s CPI inflation at 5.2% in FY27, before easing to the midpoint target of 4% in FY28. This comes after India’s retail inflation accelerated to 4.82% in August this year, from 4.45% in July, as food prices and other key components of the consumer basket exerted pressure on the economy.

Nomura believes a full tightening cycle is unlikely

Given limited signs of generalisation, Nomura believes that a full tightening cycle is unlikely. It expects a 25 bps rate hike by RBI in October and December to a terminal rate of 5.75% as a preemptive recalibration to anchor expectations. “The RBI will do less in this cycle, not more,” the international brokerage said.

Nomura, however, expects the rupee to underperform the euro in the medium term, driven by RBI’s dollar accumulation, portfolio flow and current account deficit challenges. The international brokerage’s economics team sees the downside risks to India’s growth supporting the view of rupee underperformance ahead.

Also read | RBI may raise repo rate to 5.75-6% in H2 FY27, rate hike cycle likely from December: UBI

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Debaroti Adhikary, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Debaroti Adhikary and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.