West Asia tensions cloud market outlook, Nifty may stay rangebound

Mumbai: Indian equity indices ended another week on a subdued note, as geopolitical tensions from West Asia, and higher crude oil prices continued to weigh on Dalat Street. Analysts said that the Nifty could continue to see rangebound moves and trade sideways unless fresh triggers emerge.

NSE's Nifty rose 20.15 points or 0.1% to close at 24,252. BSE's Sensex ended flat at 77,540.83 on Friday. The indices declined 0.5% and 0.6% for the week, respectively, after ending marginally lower in the previous week as well.

"The US-Iran geopolitical tensions continued to weigh on markets this week, resulting in subdued trading and range-bound moves," said Sunny Agrawal, head of research at SBI Securities.


Read more: Market wrap: Kotak Mahindra Bank, Power Grid, Maruti Suzuki, Trent top gainers and losers on Nifty and Sensex on Friday


Agrawal said the US Fed's intervention to cool 30-year US bond yields provided some interim relief during the week, while the results season wrapped up far better than expected, with most companies delivering double-digit revenue and PAT growth.

The escalation in geopolitical talks took Brent crude oil futures to over $94 a barrel on Friday evening, and prices were above the $90 mark for the entire week.

"We will continue to watch for any positive geopolitical developments or a cooling off in oil prices over the weekend," Agrawal said. "If not, the Nifty is likely to remain in the 24,000-24,500 range and see news flow-driven moves."

Ruchit Jain, head - equity technical research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said going ahead, crude remains the market's biggest worry. "If it starts to cool off, the Nifty may soon break past its near-term resistance of 24,500-24,600," he said.

Nifty's Volatility Index rose 4.1% to 11.2 Friday, indicating some caution among market participants. Nifty Midcap 150 gained 0.1% and Nifty Small-cap 250 rose 0.4%. Of the total 4,564 stocks traded on Friday, 2,177 advanced and 2,152 declined at the close. The midcap index remained flat for the week, while Smallcap 250 rose 0.7%.

"We saw the Nifty recently correct from its recent highs, with the index failing to surpass the previous day's highs for 12 straight sessions," said Jain. "However, mid-week, the index started rising again and has respected its 24,000 support. In every correction since March, the Nifty has formed higher bottoms, which remains a positive sign," he said.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan fell 0.3%, China remained flat, while Hong Kong rose 1.2%, South Korea gained 0.9% and Taiwan rose 0.7%. The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 was up 0.2% at the time of going to print. Foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth ₹543 crore. Domestic institutions were buyers to the tune of ₹2,124 crore.