Vodafone Idea shares rally 80% in less than 3 months. Time to buy or avoid?

The shares of Vodafone Idea (Vi) have surged nearly 80% in less than three months and 110% in one year, with analysts advising investors to exercise caution amid underlying fundamental concerns.

After hitting a multi-month low of Rs 8.13 apiece on NSE in April this year, the stock jumped around 89% to hit a fresh 52-week high of Rs 15.34 apiece earlier this month. While it has corrected slightly from that level, it is trading significantly higher than the low.

The shares of the telecom company were boosted by multiple tailwinds recently. In the beginning of May, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) reduced the telco’s adjusted gross revenue (AGR) dues by 27% to Rs 64,046 crore as of December 31, resulting in bullish calls for the stock.


Later, the stock jumped after the company named billionaire industrialist Kumar Mangalam Birla as its non-executive chairman, around five years after he resigned from the same role in the telecom giant amid financial stress. Additionally, Vodafone Idea earlier this week announced that it has raised Rs 1,182 crore from promoter Aditya Birla group through an issue of warrants.

Also read:Vodafone Idea raises Rs 1,182 crore from promoter Aditya Birla Group

Should you buy, sell or hold?

Despite a sharp 75–80% rally from the recent lows, the technical structure of this telecom major has not witnessed a meaningful turnaround yet, said Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst (Equity & Derivatives) at Angel One. The broader setup continues to remain range-bound, while the primary trend remains neutral to bearish, with the absence of a sustained formation of higher highs and higher lows, he highlighted.

That said, the analyst noted that the stock continues to hold a sacrosanct support zone, highlighting strong demand at lower levels. “In the near term, the stock has the potential to move higher towards the 18–20 zone. A decisive breakout above the 20 mark would be a significant technical development, as it would result in the formation of a higher high for the first time in several years and could open the door for a medium-term move towards the 29–30 zone,” he said.

While short-term momentum has improved, a sustained breakout above key resistance levels would be required to confirm a broader trend reversal, according to Hitesh Rathi.

Also read: Vodafone Idea share price | Citi removes ‘High Risk’ rating; here’s why

The 80% rally in Vodafone Idea over the last three months should be read as a sentiment-and-positioning event rather than a fundamental re-rating, said Harshal Dasani, Business Head, INVasset PMS. “The drivers of the move have been improved going-concern visibility following the government's stake-conversion, the equity fundraise improving near-term liquidity, and short-covering as the binary "will it survive" question began to soften. None of these triggers, however, change the structural challenges. Subscriber losses to Jio and Airtel continue at a meaningful run-rate, ARPU remains structurally below the larger two players, the debt overhang despite restructuring is still elevated, and 5G capex investment continues to lag both competitors. The honest framing is that survival improving is not the same as the investment case improving. Telecom is a scale-intensive business with strong winner-take-most dynamics, and the gap between Vodafone Idea and the top two players has widened, not narrowed, through this cycle,” he said.

Dasani noted that the current rally is the kind that rewards traders rather than investors. For investors seeking telecom-sector exposure, the higher-quality and more durable franchises in the sector offer a cleaner risk-reward, he said, adding that the framework view is that the stock remains a binary trade rather than a structural investment, and that distinction is the one that matters when sizing positions.

Also read: AMFI Rejig | BSE and Vodafone Idea among 8 midcap stocks that may get largecap status in H2 CY26

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)