UltraTech Cement shares fall 1% despite strong Q4. Goldman Sachs, Citi, Nomura, others weigh in

Shares of UltraTech Cement dipped over a percent to their day’s low of Rs 11,880 on the BSE on Tuesday, even though the company reported a 20% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 2,983 crore for the fourth quarter.

Revenue from operations during the January-March 2026 quarter grew 12% YoY to Rs 25,799 crore. The company also declared a special dividend and said it reflects several key milestones achieved in FY26, including consolidated PAT crossing Rs 8,000 crore for the first time in its history, domestic grey cement capacity moving past the 200 MTPA mark, and operating cash flows rising 50% YoY to Rs 14,398 crore.

The company further said FY26 operating cash flow is sufficient to fund ongoing capital expenditure plans as well as the dividend payout, without affecting financial stability or future growth commitments.

Should you Buy, Sell or Hold UltraTech Cement shares?

Goldman Sachs has maintained its Buy rating on UltraTech Cement, while revising its target price to Rs 13,230 from Rs 13,640 earlier, a 10.5% upside from current levels. The brokerage highlighted a strong March quarter performance, with EBITDA per tonne at Rs 1,167, ahead of estimates.

The Wall Street major expects near-term margins to face some pressure from higher energy costs. However, it remains positive on the long-term outlook, supported by capacity expansion and operational efficiency gains. Goldman Sachs expects EBITDA CAGR of around 14% over the next two years.

Citi has maintained its Buy rating on UltraTech Cement and raised the target price to Rs 14,750 from Rs 14,350 earlier. The brokerage said EBITDA came in above its estimates, supported by volumes, brand transition benefits and other revenues. Sequential improvement in EBITDA per tonne was driven by 2% quarter-on-quarter higher realisations, gains from brand transition and a marginal decline in costs. Citi also noted that the stock is trading at an EV/tonne of $160 compared with its historical peak of $220.

Nomura has retained its Buy rating on UltraTech Cement with a target price of Rs 13,900, a 16% upside following a stronger-than-expected March quarter performance. It said the earnings surprise was largely driven by better realisations. UltraTech posted unitary EBITDA of Rs 1,250 per tonne, up more than Rs 130 per tonne quarter-on-quarter and 15% above its estimate.

Grey cement volumes rose 9% year-on-year to 42.5 million tonnes, slightly below Nomura’s expectation of 10% growth. Blended realisations increased 3% quarter-on-quarter and were 2% ahead of estimates, supported in part by the completion of the brand transition of acquired assets during the quarter.

Motilal Oswal has retained its Buy rating on UltraTech Cement with a target price of Rs 13,800, implying a potential upside of 15%.

The brokerage said UltraTech’s 4Q performance came in ahead of its estimates, largely supported by stronger cost savings. The company believes cost pressures arising from the West Asia conflict remain manageable in the near term through multiple operational levers, along with partial benefit from price hikes already taken. Motilal Oswal expects consolidated revenue, EBITDA and PAT to deliver a CAGR of 13%, 15% and 18%, respectively, over FY26-FY28. It has also projected consolidated volume CAGR of around 10% during the same period.

Nuvama has also maintained its Buy rating on UltraTech Cement, with a revised target price of Rs 14,502 versus Rs 14,461 earlier. The brokerage highlighted strong volume growth supported by operating efficiencies and valued the company at 20 times EV/EBITDA based on Q4FY28E estimates.

Nuvama said management has achieved cost reductions of Rs 185 per tonne so far against its medium-term target of Rs 250-Rs 300 per tonne. While profitability could see some impact in Q2FY27, the brokerage expects UltraTech Cement to outperform the industry due to long-term supply contracts that support lower costs.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)