Trumpism the new ‘Alt-Right’! Why it could still be net positive for India

Trumpism is the sentiment that set the foundation for Donald Trump’s journey to the White House as President of the United States of America.

During the presidential election campaign, Trump exposed various expressions, portraying himself as a constant policy changer. Yet he won!

Recent socio-economic and political events such as the astonishing win of Trump, demonetisation drive by Narendra Modi and the UK’s Brexit vote months earlier have one thing in common – it’s that popular opinion may be contrary to event outcomes.

Let’s look at this in the context of election of Modi and Trump - Indian and American ‘alternative’ choices of leaders have quite a few similarities – both bank on verbosity of ‘great days’; both are elected to power for wonderworking towards economy and unemployment and both stand strongly against the face of terror.

To bring in an era of ‘greatness’ to reality, it is important to position the country as an economic powerhouse. Therefore, Modi and Trump’s focus on ‘Make in India’ and ‘Let’s Make America Great again’, respectively.

The good and bad impressions on India
Trump’s stance on reducing unemployment and immigration might have seemed interlinked, and stood as a threat to developing nations in trade with the US.

Let’s look at some statistics – as of December 2016, unemployment rate in the US stood at 4.7 per cent, the lowest since the recession in 2007-08. This rate at this point is probably systemic – i.e., there are voluntarily unemployed people. For the benefit of nations providing cost-effective imported goods to the US, Trump’s expressions focusing on bringing back blue collar jobs might be only a political propaganda than a threat.

Research shows that technological advancements in the West is a prime driver for unemployment. A cut in imports by the US will end up creating a global inequality in trade than ‘bringing-back’ blue collar jobs.

Having said that, in view of election promises, I do expect some prominent manufacturing companies like GM, Ford, Apple and GE to move back a percentage of manufacturing or setup new units in the US.

India has been providing skilled services to the US primarily in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). The desired skilled workforce in US is insufficient and this gap is unlikely to be filled by this 4.7 per cent of population which largely comprises of low-skilled workers.

In the light of these facts, while proposed changes to the H1-B visas if implemented, might temporarily affect Indian IT companies and shatter some dreams of Indian talent to work in US – however given the lack of skills available in the US and a low unemployment rate, it is very unlikely that the outsourcing to India will be negatively affected. On the positive side, it might stop brain drain to the Silicon Valley and help us retain ‘India Talent’ to India – adding a thrust to Make in India and the Modi’s startup incubation plan.

Let’s also remember that Trump is not a politician. His business acumen knows that restricting foreign talent might hurt US economy - he has clearly stated that he wants to cultivate the skilled Indians, Indian Entrepreneurs in the US.

In the past, the US has indeed been the most welcoming country for immigrants - with more than half of their startups being from Indian or Chinese origin residents.

Many Nobel prizes have been won by first or second generation immigrants. Despite his postured skepticism towards migrants, he still looks favorable towards India in terms of geopolitics, trade and defence priorities.

In my view, the outcome of Trump’s election and a Republican Government may indeed be contrary to popular opinion, and net positive for India.

(Anshul Jain is MD, India, Cushman & Wakefield. Views are his own)