These two cognitive biases are an investor's worst enemies

This is not exactly ground-breaking, but internalizing this can help financial planners determine which clients could be at risk for making investing mistakes.

These two cognitive biases are an investor's worst enemies
By Elena Holodny

FA Insights is a daily newsletter from Business Insider that delivers the top news and commentary for financial advisors.
These two things are an investor's greatest enemies (University of Missouri News Bureau)

University of Missouri associate professor Rui Yao analyzed data from the 2008 FPA-Ameriprise Financial Value of Financial Planning Research Study and found that overconfidence and loss aversion are key factors causing people to make investment mistakes.

For most people, this is not exactly ground-breaking news. However, internalizing this can help financial planners determine which clients could be at risk for making investing mistakes.

"During a down market, every mistake an investor makes is magnified," Yao said. "If financial planners can identify those who are more at risk to make these mistakes, they can more effectively work with the investors beforehand to help prevent them from making such mistakes."

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Stocks have bounced back since February and the broad US economy continues to grow, which suggests that the US isn't on the precipice of a recession. However, the manufacturing sector hasn't recovered yet - and investors would be wise to pay attention.

"For many investors the response is: So what? Manufacturing is a relatively small portion of the overall economy, they say. The much more important consumer sector is holding up, with households continuing to spend at a decent, if uninspiring pace," wrote BlackRock's Russ Koesterich.

"All true, but a rebound in corporate profits is much less likely in the context of falling industrial production. Put differently, falling industrial production is not necessarily indicative of an economic recession, but in the past it has been consistent with a profits recession."

Charles Schwab is taking mutual funds with sales loads off its shelves in light of the new DOL fiduciary rule, reports Jeff Benjamin.

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"We expect more firms to look to no-load options for investors as advisers and their clients become more cost-conscious," Todd Rosenbluth, director of mutual fund and ETF research at S&P Capital IQ told Benjamin. "With advisers increasingly using lower-cost passive strategies in fee-based accounts, assets have been moving out of many mutual funds with sales loads. The pending Department of Labor rules will accelerate this trend."

"We won't create a platform that disintermediates the financial advisor," said Scott Curtis, president of Raymond James Financial Services, the independent arm of the financial advisory firm. "Direct-to-consumer is not our model."

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But, notably, Curtis added that if robo-type services would help Raymond James comply with the new DOL rule, then the firm "certainly will explore" the option, reports Charles Paikert.

The founders of Sullivan, Bruyette, Speros & Blayney (SBSB) just brought ownership of the $2.8-billion firm back to Virginia after selling the RIA to the Bank of Montreal 13 years ago.

While it may seem unusual for an RIA to spin away from a successful relationship, Sanders Wommack details a few reasons why the firm may have wanted to go solo, including that the partnership "jeopardized plans to ramp up growth," and that independence allows for greater flexibility with the compensation structure.
15 buy-sell ideas after Q4 results
1/16
Text: TEAM ETMarkets.com

March quarter earnings of India Inc kicked off on a promising note, but soon negative surprises have somewhat eclipsed the feel-good factor.

This lead to re-rating of several leading stocks by top brokerage firms.

Here is glimpse of how latest earnings numbers have made or marred prospects of popular stocks.
Text: TEAM ETMarkets.com March quarter earnings of India Inc kicked off on a promising note, but soon negative surprises have somewhat eclipsed the feel-good factor. This lead to re-rating of sever..
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UBS maintains a buy rating on Bharti Airtel post March quarter results and a 12-month target price of Rs 480.

Revenue growth was largely in line with estimates, and Ebitda came ahead of estimates. The strong momentum in African business saw the highest growth in last six quarters.

A strong volume trend in voice and data in Indian mobile business continued which augers well for the telecom major. According to the global investment bank, Bharti Airtel is likely to emerge as a key beneficiary of potential data boom.

Source: ETMarkets.com
UBS maintains a buy rating on Bharti Airtel post March quarter results and a 12-month target price of Rs 480.

Revenue growth was largely in line with estimates, and Ebitda came ahead of est..
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CLSA maintains a buy rating on Yes Bank after March quarter results and has raised its 12-month target price to Rs 1,100 from Rs 910 earlier. Asset quality pressures were higher, but the stress loan ratio remains low, said the CLSA note.

The global investment bank raised earnings forecasts by 5-6 per cent to factor in the healthy growth and stable asset quality. Going forward, retail loans are likely to drive the next leg of the growth while underwriting will be the key.

Source: ETMarkets.com
CLSA maintains a buy rating on Yes Bank after March quarter results and has raised its 12-month target price to Rs 1,100 from Rs 910 earlier. Asset quality pressures were higher, but the stress loan ..
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CLSA maintains a sell rating on Biocon after its March quarter results, but raised its 12-month target price to Rs 440 from Rs 400 earlier. Biocon saw a weak profit growth trend since 1QFY14 which may last another year.

The trend will reverse only after biosimilars gain traction in emerging markets (EMs). The core business valuations look expensive, but value-unlocking looks visible is beyond FY18.

Source: ETMarkets.com
CLSA maintains a sell rating on Biocon after its March quarter results, but raised its 12-month target price to Rs 440 from Rs 400 earlier. Biocon saw a weak profit growth trend since 1QFY14 which ma..
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CLSA maintains an outperform rating on JSW Energy after March quarter results with a 12-month target price of Rs 81. The March quarter net profit dipped six per cent to Rs 305 crore against Rs 325 crore during the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

The core businesses grew on the back of 25 per cent volume growth and lower fuel costs. Leverage peaked in Q2 and continued to decline in Q4, which is a positive sign. The global investment bank maintains outperform rating as the stock offers value at 8.1 times FY17 EPS

Source: ETMarkets.com
CLSA maintains an outperform rating on JSW Energy after March quarter results with a 12-month target price of Rs 81. The March quarter net profit dipped six per cent to Rs 305 crore against Rs 325 cr..
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Deutsche Bank maintains a hold rating on Exide Industries post-March quarter results but raised its target price to Rs 145 from Rs 140 earlier.

Q4 results were in line with expectations. The revenue growth turned positive after a gap of three-quarters. Stabilization in automotive battery and a cyclical uptick to aid revenues in FY17 said the global investment bank.

Source: ETMarkets.com
Deutsche Bank maintains a hold rating on Exide Industries post-March quarter results but raised its target price to Rs 145 from Rs 140 earlier.

Q4 results were in line with expectations. Th..
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CLSA downgraded UltraTech Cements to outperform from buy earlier post Q4 results but maintains its 12-month target price to Rs 3,750. The beat was on the back of higher volumes and lower costs.

Overall, Ebitda was 15 per cent which was ahead of estimates. The domestic realisation remained under pressure and declined 4 per cent sequentially.

Source: ETMarkets.com
CLSA downgraded UltraTech Cements to outperform from buy earlier post Q4 results but maintains its 12-month target price to Rs 3,750. The beat was on the back of higher volumes and lower costs.
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CLSA maintains buy rating on Indiabulls Housing Finance post Q4 results but reduced its 12-month target price to Rs 800 from Rs 850 earlier. The net profit was tad below estimate, and earnings growth was largely driven by 31 per cent growth in AUM, said the investment bank.

CLSA said that net interest income (NII) growth came in lower due to a higher non-core gain in the base. The investment bank trimmed earnings by 2 per cent, but expect healthy 22 per cent CAGR in profit over FY16-18.

Source: ETMarkets.com
CLSA maintains buy rating on Indiabulls Housing Finance post Q4 results but reduced its 12-month target price to Rs 800 from Rs 850 earlier. The net profit was tad below estimate, and earnings growt..
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Credit Suisse maintains outperform rating on M&M Financial post Q4 results and has also raised its 12-month target price to Rs 330 from Rs 285 earlier. Most of the net interest margin (NIM) surprise was explained by improved recoveries, said the brokerage note.

The March quarter saw aggressive repossessions and greater investments that went into collections. However, the management cautioned that 1HFY17 will see a rise in NPAs just like in previous years. The global brokerage firm is of the view that improvement in the 2HFY17 would depend on monsoons, infrastructure activity, and rural demand.

Source: ETMarkets.com
Credit Suisse maintains outperform rating on M&M Financial post Q4 results and has also raised its 12-month target price to Rs 330 from Rs 285 earlier. Most of the net interest margin (NIM) surprise ..
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Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on RIL with a 12-month target price of Rs 1175 as strong refining margin drives highest ever quarterly profit in 4QFY16.

The global investment bank sees EBITDA growth of around 45 per cent over FY16 - 18. The capacity additions in its core business and downstream will drive EBITDA going forward. The commercial launch of the telecom venture RJio over the next few months will be a key trigger.

Source: ETMarkets.com
Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on RIL with a 12-month target price of Rs 1175 as strong refining margin drives highest ever quarterly profit in 4QFY16.

The global investment bank sees E..
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