The deal that changed Nifty playbook: India-US trade pact throws up over 70 winning stock ideas

With the Sensex and Nifty jumping nearly 5% on Tuesday morning and inching close to their all-time highs following the overnight announcement of the India-US trade deal, market insiders are calling it “the beginning of a boom” that could propel equities to fresh record levels.

In a swift turnaround, the long-awaited Indo–US trade agreement was unveiled, with the US agreeing to cut reciprocal tariffs on Indian imports from 25% to 18% and fully roll back the 25% punitive levy linked to Indo-Russian oil trade.
The move not only makes Indian exports more competitive in the US market but also sets off a chain reaction of positive developments.


“The dramatic announcement of the long-awaited US–India trade deal and the US decision to cut tariffs on India from 50% to 18% is a game changer for the Indian economy and stock markets,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.

“India’s growth rate could rise to around 7.5% in FY27, supported by higher exports to the US. Corporate earnings, already showing signs of revival in FY27, could accelerate to around 16–18%. The rupee is also likely to strengthen sharply.”

Vijayakumar added that “the stock market, anticipating and discounting these developments, is set to boom. Technically, a market that is heavily short will witness short-covering, adding further fuel to the rally.”

FII tsunami expected
Emkay Global’s Seshadri Sen believes “this will cascade into a strong rally in equities. A reversal in the rupee is likely to trigger a wave of FPI buying, supported by multiple other factors.” Sen noted that earnings momentum is turning positive with FY27E Nifty EPS poised for 14% YoY growth after two years of disappointment, valuations have corrected to 5-year average levels with deep corrections in small and mid-caps, and “there was significant money waiting on the sidelines, unwilling to catch the falling rupee knife.”

Motilal Oswal highlighted that “with this deal announcement, we believe that the market will now begin to accord correct weightage to the improving trajectory of corporate earnings growth.” The brokerage expects approximately 12% earnings growth for Nifty over FY25-27E, with valuations at 20.4x remaining palatable below the 10-year average of 20.8x—and “with the latest turn of events, it has the potential to expand appreciably.”

Top stock picks after India-US trade deal
Textiles: “In the textile sector, companies with US exposure ranging from 20% to 70%—such as Gokaldas, Welspun India, Himatsingka Seide, Trident, and SP Apparels—will be the primary beneficiaries,” said Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities. Other picks include KPR Mill and Arvind (Antique), and Welspun Living (Axis Securities, Emkay Global). Vijayakumar emphasised that “textile stocks will be in special focus.”

Chemicals: Direct beneficiaries include SRF, Navin Fluorine, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Aarti Industries, and Atul (Emkay Global). Agrawal noted that exposure in this sector generally ranges from 25% to 30%, though some niche players have exposure as high as 74%. Additional picks include UPL and Sharda Cropchem (Antique).

Auto Ancillaries: Emkay Global’s picks include Suprajit Engineering, Bharat Forge, and Sona Comstar. Agrawal highlighted Garware Hi-Tech Films as a key beneficiary. Antique added Studds, while Axis Securities recommended Sansera Engineering and Steel Strip Wheels.

Banks: FII favourites among large-cap banking leaders, NBFCs, and other blue chips in telecom, capital goods, and IT are likely to see strong gains, Vijayakumar said. Antique’s picks include ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, SBI, Karur Vysya Bank, and City Union Bank. Emkay Global recommended SMID banks and NBFCs such as IDFC First Bank and Shriram Finance to play the acceleration in the easing cycle, along with Shriram Pistons.

IT Services: Antique highlighted large caps such as Infosys, Wipro, and HCL Tech, and mid-caps including Persistent Systems and Mphasis, noting that “visa fees and US hiring issues will subside. However, every 1% appreciation in the rupee leads to a 2% EPS downgrade.” Axis Securities’ picks include Infosys, HCL Tech, and LTI Mindtree. Jefferies, however, trimmed IT exposure despite the positive outlook.

Pharma: Axis Securities recommended Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Lupin, and Aurobindo Pharma. Non-coverage picks include Sun Pharma and Divi’s Laboratories. Antique added Cipla and Dr Reddy’s.

Industrials: Antique’s picks include BHEL, Apar Industries, Transformer Rectifier, LMW, GE Vernova T&D India, and Cummins India, particularly for power transmission and distribution equipment. Axis Securities recommended Pitti Engineering and Kirloskar Brothers.

Defence: Antique highlighted HAL, Bharat Dynamics, PTC Industries, and Raymond.

Seafood: “In seafood—particularly shrimp exporters—Apex Frozen Foods leads with 63% exposure, followed by Waterbase at 40% and Avanti Feeds at 14%,” Agrawal said.

Consumer: Agrawal noted that “in the consumer space, LT Foods is a stock to watch, with nearly 40% US exposure.” Antique added LG in consumer durables.

Solar and New Energy: Jefferies highlighted solar manufacturers as key beneficiaries, while Nuvama identified cables and wires and new energy as direct beneficiaries.

Broader market themes
Brokerages said key beneficiaries are likely to be auto ancillaries, solar manufacturers, chemicals, textiles and Adani Group companies. Jefferies has added Eternal, an FPI favourite, to its model portfolio and also increased exposure to metals.

Motilal Oswal noted that “this is a high-impact development and will have a multi-layered positive effect on the Indian economy, prevailing market sentiment, and sectors exporting to the US.” Key sectoral beneficiaries, it said, include auto ancillaries, defence, consumer, textiles, EMS, consumer durables, IT services, financials (as a second-order beneficiary), and utilities.

Antique’s additional picks include Adani Power and JSW Energy in the power space, Adani Ports in transportation, Syrma SGS in EMS, and Tata Steel and Nalco in metals.

Emkay Global’s preferred themes include “discretionary consumption through autos and new-age internet stocks, which remain a structural India play for us.” Its picks include Tata Motors CV, Lenskart, and Eternal. However, the brokerage cautioned that there could be a negative impact on oil marketing companies and Reliance Industries if India stops buying Russian crude.

Axis Securities emphasised that the US–India trade deal should be viewed as a medium-term structural positive rather than a short-term trigger. It advised investors to focus on companies with strong US exposure, scalable manufacturing capabilities, regulatory compliance strength, and balance-sheet resilience to fully capture the opportunity.