The Adani stock Morgan Stanley thinks could benefit most from India’s infrastructure push

Morgan Stanley has initiated coverage on Adani Enterprises Ltd (AEL) with an Overweight rating, arguing it is the Adani stock best placed to benefit from India’s multi-year infrastructure and capex cycle across airports, roads, digital infrastructure, and new energy. The global brokerage firm has given a target price of Rs 3,638 on the stock, signaling an upside potential of 23% from the previous close.

Morgan Stanley describes Adani Enterprises as “India’s premier incubator” with a 30% market-cap CAGR since its 1994 IPO, driven by a model of “incubation → scale → monetisation → capital recycling.” The firm highlights that 80% of AEL’s FY26 EBITDA already comes from its core infrastructure and utilities portfolio—airports, roads, data centres, new energy, copper, PVC, mining and defence—versus a trading-heavy mix just four years ago.

The report forecasts revenue and EBITDA CAGRs of 19% and 32%, respectively, over FY26–30, with EBITDA expected to rise ~3x from Rs140bn in FY26 to ~Rs423bn by FY30, led by airports, new energy and primary industries, and supported by rapid scaling in its data centre JV. The earnings profile is also seen improving as the mix shifts “from commodity-linked earnings (IRM/mining) toward regulated and contracted infrastructure (airports, roads), digital infrastructure (data centers), and manufacturing platforms (green equipment, copper, defence, and PVC).”

Earnings inflection from FY27

Morgan Stanley flags FY27 as a key inflection year for AEL’s earnings as multiple incubation businesses simultaneously enter commercial scale. The brokerage lists four main drivers: the commissioning of Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA), capacity expansion and backward integration in the new energy business, tolling commencement at the Ganga Expressway road project, and higher copper smelting utilisation.


On copper, the report expects utilisation to rise from 60% in Q4 FY26 to 80% in FY27, translating into an estimated FY27 EBITDA contribution of Rs22bn. Tolling on the Ganga Expressway is projected to deliver Rs8.5bn of EBITDA in FY27. In new energy, Adani New Industries Ltd (ANIL) is scaling its fully integrated solar supply chain from 4GW to 10GW of cell and module capacity by September 2026, backed by about Rs100bn of capex, alongside 2.25GW of wind turbine capacity and emerging green hydrogen projects under the National Hydrogen Mission. Morgan Stanley forecasts an 18% EBITDA CAGR for the new energy ecosystem over FY26–30.

Adani’s airport business, housed in Adani Airport Holdings Ltd (AAHL), is the cornerstone of the infrastructure story in the report. AAHL operates eight airports handling 95.5mn passengers in FY26, representing 23% of India’s passenger traffic and 29% of cargo, with long concession tenures of around 50 years and regulated returns on the regulatory asset base. Morgan Stanley calls AAHL “India’s largest private airport network” and forecasts airport EBITDA to grow at a 29% CAGR from Rs51.6bn in FY26 to Rs141bn by FY30.

The Navi Mumbai International Airport is singled out as a “game-changer” for the platform. NMIA was commissioned in October 2025 with Phase 1 capacity of about 20mn passengers, scalable to 90mn in subsequent phases, and is expected to relieve capacity constraints at Mumbai and support incremental international and long-haul connectivity. By FY29–30, Morgan Stanley expects Mumbai International Airport Ltd (MIAL) and NMIA combined to handle around 90mn passengers.

With India’s trips per capita at just 0.12, far below China and the US, the report cites management expectations of 10% CAGR in passenger traffic over FY23–30 and notes government plans to operationalise more than 230 airports by 2030 and 350–400 by 2047.

Non-aeronautical monetisation is another critical lever. In FY26, non-aero revenue grew 31% year-on-year versus passenger growth of 1%, reflecting operating leverage and premiumisation in duty-free, F&B, lounges, parking and advertising. Mumbai’s non-aero revenue per passenger is around US$4.7 compared with global peers at US$10+, leaving “significant monetization headroom,” while AAHL has ~683 acres with ~150mn sq ft of city-side development potential across its airports, including 235 acres at NMIA.

The current revenue mix of roughly 60:40 aero to non-aero is expected over time to flip to 40:60 as city-side development scales and commercial offerings premiumise, aligning AEL more closely with mature hubs such as Changi and Heathrow where non-aero contributes over half of revenue.

Morgan Stanley places AEL at the intersection of several of its global themes — AI & tech diffusion, the multipolar world and the future of energy — via its data centre and new energy platforms. The AdaniConneX JV is building a ~2GW data centre portfolio on a build-to-suit model anchored by hyperscaler contracts, benefiting from structural cost advantages: India’s data centre construction cost is cited at US$7.13 per watt, significantly below the APAC average of US$10.3 per watt, aided by lower land costs, incentives and competitive power tariffs.

On energy transition, ANIL is described as having “India’s only fully integrated solar supply chain, spanning polysilicon to modules,” plus wind turbine capacity and long-term options in green hydrogen. Morgan Stanley argues that every vertical in AEL’s portfolio is aligned with specific government initiatives—ranging from PLI and Atmanirbhar Bharat to data localisation and the National Infrastructure Pipeline—giving the group a policy tailwind behind its infrastructure and manufacturing ambitions.

Morgan Stanley’s Rs3,638 price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation using EV/EBITDA multiples for each vertical—airports, data centres, new energy, IRM/mining, copper, PVC, roads and others—discounted back to FY28. Airports are valued at 25x FY31 EBITDA, at a premium to GMR on the back of stronger non-aero performance, data centres at 30x FY30 with a marginal premium to global listed operators, and new energy at 15x FY28, marginally above Indian peers.

Copper, IRM & mining, as well as PVC, are valued at around 8x FY28–30, while roads and other businesses are assigned multiples of 8–10x.

Key catalysts identified include the ramp-up of NMIA, tolling at Ganga Expressway, ANIL’s capacity additions and wafer/ingot commissioning, data centre capacity additions under firm hyperscaler contracts, and stabilisation of the copper plant and PVC operations.