Tata Motors Q1 Preview: PAT may jump 48% YoY; JLR to put up a decent show

Leading automaker Tata Motors' revenue growth for the first quarter will be driven by decent volume growth in JLR (Jaguar Land Rover) and CV (Commercial Vehicle) business even as PV (Passenger Vehicles) was subdued.

Revenue for the first quarter is seen rising 6% year-on-year, according to an average estimate of four brokerages. Net profit, meanwhile, is likely to see a solid growth of 48% year-on-year.

Analysts expect JLR volumes (excluding China JV) to increase by 9% YoY led by strong growth in Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Defender model volumes. Overall, revenues (ex China JV) to increase by 6% YoY in 1QFY25.


In the recent March quarter, the auto major reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 17,529 crore, which was a 46% jump year-on-year. Revenue was up 13% to Rs 1.2 lakh crore.



Here's what analysts expect from Tata Motor's Q1

YES Securities

We expect TTMT's consol revenue to grow by 2.5% YoY (-12.7% QoQ) at Rs 104780 crore. Consol EBITDA margins are expected to expand 50bp YoY (-40bp QoQ) at 13.8%. Led by decline in interest cost both YoY and QoQ, adj.PAT to grow +33% YoY at ~Rs54.5b.

India business performance was a mixed bag as CV volumes grew 6% YoY and PVs declined 1% YoY. However, CV/PV EBIT margin is likely to contract 190bp/50bp QoQ due to lower volumes.

Motilal Oswal
JLR volumes are expected to see 3% YoY growth. We estimate an EBIT margin of 7.5% (-170bp QoQ) for JLR, led by unfavorable product mix, rising spends and lower volumes.

Overall, we expect the consolidated entity to post 8.5% YoY growth in 1Q earnings.

Kotak Equities
We expect standalone business revenues to increase by 9% YoY in 1QFY25 led by (1) 6% YoY increase in volumes partly on account of a lower base and (2) 2-3% YoY increase in ASPs due to price hikes taken over the past one year. Overall, we expect EBITDA margin to improve by 160 bps YoY to 10% driven by operating leverage benefit and a richer product mix. We also expect domestic PV business.

EBITDA to decline to 6.8% (-50 bps qoq) in 1QFY25 driven by negative operating leverage and higher discounts, partly offset by commodity tailwinds in EV segment due to decline in battery prices.

We expect JLR volumes (excluding China JV) to increase by 9% YoY led by strong growth in Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and Defender model volumes. Overall, we expect revenues (ex China JV) to increase by 6% YoY in 1QFY25.

We expect reported EBITDA margin to decline by 20 bps YoY to 16.1% driven by higher VME and marketing spends, offset by operating leverage benefits. As a result, we expect JLR EBIT margin to come in at 8.6% in 1QFY25

Prabhudas Lilladher
We see TTMT's revenue to grow by 5% YoY. Consistent performance in JLR and pricing action in CV and PV business to drive EBITDA margin expansion of 175bps YoY. PAT is expected to grow by 64.8% YoY.

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