Tata Motors PV Q3 Preview: JLR hit to weigh on profits; revenue may slip up to 9% despite festive, GST tailwinds

Auto major Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) Q3 performance is expected to show a sharp divergence between its India passenger vehicle (PV) business and its global luxury arm, Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). While domestic PV volumes are seen holding up on festive demand and recent launches, consolidated earnings are likely to remain under pressure due to a production hit and margin stress at JLR following a cyber-attack incident. Brokerages broadly expect weak consolidated profitability, with losses in some estimates, even as India PV trends remain comparatively steady.

While Nuvama Institutional Equities, YES Securities and JM Financial see net losses up in Q3FY26 to Rs 4,549 crore, Deven Choksey Research expects 18% year-over-year net profit growth. Revenue may drop up to 9%, highest among its peers.

The company will announce its earnings on Thursday, February 5.


Here's what brokerage estimates say on these 5 key parameters:

1) PAT

-- Nuvama Institutional Equities expects adjusted net losses of Rs 3,701 crore largely reflecting the impact of weaker JLR profitability.

-- YES Securities pegs the net loss at Rs 2,208 crore weighed down by sharp YoY decline in JLR earnings.

-- JM Financial is the most cautious, forecasting net losses of Rs 4,549 crore.

-- Deven Choksey Research is the only brokerage among the four which estimates TMPV to report a profit, albeit 18% lower on YoY basis at Rs 446 crore.

2) Revenues

-- Nuvama estimates consolidated revenues at Rs 69,023 crore, down 27% YoY and 5% QoQ, as JLR production disruptions offset robust India PV growth.

-- YES Securities sees revenue at Rs 68,447 crore, down 5.4% QoQ, with a steep YoY decline driven by JLR.

-- JM Financial expects revenues of Rs 67,094 crore, down 29% YoY and 8.3% QoQ.

-- Deven Choksey Research pegs PV revenues at Rs 10,218 crore, down 9.3% YoY and 41.2% QoQ.

3) EBITDA

Nuvama forecasts EBITDA of just Rs 374 crore, down 97% YoY, citing higher variable marketing expenses (VME) and lower operating leverage at JLR.

-- YES Securities estimates EBITDA at Rs 1,490 crore, with partial recovery in margins QoQ.

-- JM Financial expects EBITDA losses of Rs 794 crore, reflecting continued stress at JLR.

-- Deven Choksey Research estimates PV EBITDA at Rs 1,174 crore, down 5.4% YoY.

4) EBITDA margin

-- Nuvama expects EBITDA margin to compress sharply to 0.5%, down 1,275 bps YoY and 248 bps QoQ, led by weak JLR scale and higher costs.

-- YES Securities sees consolidated EBITDA margins recovering modestly to around 2.2%, though still well below historical levels due to JLR headwinds.

5) Volume

Deven Choksey Research estimates PV volumes at 3,60,472 units, up 6% YoY and a sharp 71.2% QoQ, supported by festive demand, GST 2.0-led revival and launches such as the Sierra.

6) Key monitorables

JLR demand and production outlook post the cyber-attack disruption remains key monitorables, said both Nuvama and JM Financial.

Meanwhile, margin recovery trajectory at JLR, including the pace of volume ramp-up and VME normalization also remain in focus, opines YES Securities.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)