Spike in delivery-based trades hints at a possible recession

Markets have lost more than half a trillion dollars in market capitalisation since Covid-19.

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Average daily turnover of the cash segment at the NSE and BSE rose 39% and 57% in March, compared with their respective one-year average.
Delivery-based trades in India are rising, indicating that a section of the market is factoring in a major recession — and wants to eject at the first opportunity. Delivery percentage on the NSE and BSE reached 36.87% in March, higher than their long-term average, according to data compiled by ETIG.

Indian markets have lost more than half a trillion dollars in market capitalisation since the Covid-19-induced selloff began late February. Average daily turnover of the cash segment at the NSE and BSE rose 39% and 57% in March, compared with their respective one-year average.

Average daily turnover of cash segment of the NSE stood at Rs 48,975 crore in the 19 days of trading in March, a record high level. The selling pressure can be gauged from the fact that the number of trades on the NSE rose 66% to 2.02 crore in March compared with last one-year average of 1.21 crore, according to NSE data.


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The rising delivery in the falling market shows investors are selling their core portfolio holdings to minimise loss as ‘return’ of capital takes precedence over the return on capital.

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