Sensex has made Diwali happier in 7 out of last 10 Muhurat trading days

NEW DELHI: Considered to be an auspicious occasion by Dalal Street traders, the one-hour special session of Diwali Muhurat Trading day has resulted in the Sensex ending in the green zone in seven out of the last 10 years.

Since 2012, the Muhurat day trading sessions of 2012, 2016 and 2017 have been the only three occasions when Sensex ended up eroding wealth on Diwali. The year 2017 has been the worst Diwali in the last decade with Sensex losing 0.6% or 194 points, while in 2016, it ended flat with a loss of just 11 points.

2018 has been the best Diwali for traders during the period when the Sensex rallied 0.7% or 246 points. The last Muhurat session had the index ending 0.49% or 296 points higher.

While the market is shut for normal trading for the Diwali festival, both stock exchanges -- BSE and NSE -- will open a special trading window for just one hour for Muhurat trading to mark the beginning of Hindi accounting year Vikram Samvat 2079.

Trading volumes have usually been low as many traders prefer to make token purchases rather than full-fledged trades. Fewer stocks move during that short duration.

In recent years, the 2008 Muhurat trading day has been an exception in which Sensex surprised even the most optimistic bulls by climbing 5.86% in the one-hour session. It settled at 9,008 for the day but remained range-bound for the rest of the year as the global financial crisis unfolded.

Muhurat Trading Strategy
While for many traders and investors, the auspiciousness of making a token trade on Diwali has gradually vanished over the years, there are many others who follow the tradition in the belief that it will bring them good luck and prosperity in the year ahead.

“There should be some token buying or selling/booking profit just to keep the tradition alive but other than that I don’t see Muhurat session as having any special significance from a strategy point of view,” says trader and smallcase manager Alok Jain.

His plan is simple - try to short the market on open and cover at close.

Value investor Jiten Parmar has an interesting observation to make - most times on the next trading day, you get your sold stock back at a lower price.

“We don’t believe Muhurat trading brings luck in favour. What brings luck in favour is focus on process, discipline, patience, conviction,” he says.

Analysts say that financial stocks are likely to lead the rally today since credit growth in the economy is robust and continues to gain momentum. “Muhurat trading will be lighted up by fireworks from the bulls who are set to charge with the support from the mother market the US which was strong last Friday,” says Dr V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

(Data Inputs: Ritesh Presswala)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)