SCO Summit optics misleading; China still a strategic rival, warns Swaminathan Aiyar

Donald Trump stirred fresh debate this week with claims that India has agreed to reduce tariffs to “almost nothing.” The comment, coming against the backdrop of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in China, raised eyebrows both in New Delhi and among global experts.

However, veteran economist and columnist Swaminathan Aiyar dismissed the suggestion outright, calling it another instance of Trump’s unpredictable rhetoric. “There is no strategy here. Mr. Trump says what he wants when he wants, and reverses himself the next day. To suggest that India has agreed to zero tariffs without any confirmation is simply not credible,” Aiyar said in an interview with ET Now.

He noted that India has never granted blanket tariff concessions to any nation, especially in sensitive areas such as agriculture, and would not do so unilaterally. “India will not give way without getting something in return,” Aiyar stressed, pointing out that Trump rarely mentions what the U.S. would offer in exchange.

Trade tensions or foreign policy?

According to Aiyar, Trump’s tariff war is less about trade and more about geopolitics. “This is no longer a tariff issue. It is a foreign policy issue. Trump is hitting out at India not because of tariffs, but because of India’s independent stance on Russia and oil imports,” he argued.

India, he suggested, has multiple ways to retaliate without escalating tariff battles. “We can quietly say, if you impose 50% tariffs on us, we won’t buy your multi-billion-dollar aircraft deals. That is retaliation by other means.”

The SCO optics

The timing of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China for the SCO summit also fueled speculation about shifting alignments. But Aiyar urged caution against reading too much into the optics. “These summits are scheduled events. Smiles and handshakes don’t mean China has suddenly turned a friend. Beijing remains a close ally of Pakistan and continues to challenge India on the border and strategic fronts,” he said.

Aiyar emphasized that while dialogue is important, India must remain clear-eyed about China’s long-term ambitions. “China intends to dominate the 21st century. India will have to strengthen its own economic and defence capacities. No one else will come to our rescue,” he warned.

Growth story unfazed

Turning to the domestic economy, Aiyar expressed optimism over India’s latest GDP numbers, which clocked in at 7.8%, beating market expectations. “Many expected growth to fall sharply, but we’ve seen the opposite. Despite concerns about investment and consumption, the fact is the economy is delivering strong results,” he said.

While some argue that frontloaded demand or tariff effects may have temporarily boosted the figures, Aiyar sees deeper resilience. “Quarter after quarter, India has outperformed its own forecasts. The economy is showing unexpected strength, and this gives us the ability to withstand Trump’s tariff pressures,” he added.

Looking ahead, he expects India to comfortably surpass the official growth projection of 6.5%, possibly even maintaining a pace above 7%.

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