Samco Securities study suggests Nifty50 index shows 88% chance of rebound next week

The Nifty 50 is flashing potential recovery signals after a 7-day slide, and historical data indicates an 88% chance of a rebound next week, according to domestic brokerage firm Samco Securities.

The index fell 3.7% during its losing streak, as of February 14, 2025.

According to data spanning 2012 to 2025, as presented by Samco Securities, the Nifty 50 has experienced 17 instances of losing streaks lasting seven or more days. In these cases, the average 1-week forward return was 1.6%, with 15 out of 17 occurrences showing positive returns.


This historical trend underpins the high probability of a short-term rebound.

Following a 7-day decline, the average return for Nifty is 1.6% after 1 week, 1.1% after 2 weeks, 1.5% after 3 weeks, and 1.8% after 1 month.

Examining notable past instances:

In March 2020, Nifty dropped 8.19% over a seven-day stretch but rebounded 6.1% the following week, despite extended losses over three weeks.

During February 2022, the index fell 6.37%, only to gain 1.5% in the subsequent week and 6.0% within a month.

In April 2019, Nifty recorded a 5.16% loss but surged 6.1% in the following week.



(Source: Samco Securities)

Although historical patterns strongly indicate that the Nifty 50 is poised for a rebound after its current losing streak, investors should remain mindful of exceptions, such as March 2020’s steep drop, which led to further short-term declines before recovery.

On Friday, the Nifty 50 index closed lower by 102.15 points or 0.44% lower at 22,929.25.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)