RIL to announce Q4 results today. 5 things to watch out for investors reeling under stock crash

Reliance Industries is set to report a mixed March quarter, with analysts expecting steady revenue growth but pressure on profitability as weakness in the oil-to-chemicals (O2C) and upstream segments offsets strength in telecom and retail. Brokerages including ICICI Securities, Nuvama and Emkay Research broadly expect earnings to remain under pressure, while YES Securities is relatively more optimistic on the bottom line.

Here are 5 things to watch out for in the Q4 results

Profit trajectory remains uncertain

Estimates for net profit vary widely, reflecting lack of clarity on earnings momentum. While YES Securities expects a marginal uptick, others such as ICICI Securities and Nuvama see profit declining in the high single to mid-teen range. This dispersion suggests that the quarter’s outcome will hinge heavily on segmental swings rather than broad-based growth.

Revenue growth likely to stay resilient

Topline is expected to hold up, with most brokerages pencilling in mid-to-high single-digit growth. ICICI Securities and Emkay expect revenue expansion of around 9-13%, though Nuvama has flagged a possible decline. The key driver remains consumer-facing businesses, which continue to scale even as energy-linked segments soften.

O2C and upstream to remain under pressure

The energy vertical is expected to be the biggest drag. Weak petrochemical spreads and volatile crude prices are likely to compress profitability in the O2C segment, while upstream performance may also remain subdued. This remains a critical variable given its large contribution to consolidated earnings.

Jio and retail to provide earnings cushion

Telecom is expected to remain the most stable contributor, supported by steady subscriber additions and improving ARPU. Retail is likely to show gradual recovery, though analysts do not expect a sharp rebound yet. According to brokerages, these segments will play a key role in offsetting weakness in the legacy businesses.

Margins to remain volatile

Operating margins are expected to stay under pressure. Emkay Research has flagged a decline in margins both sequentially and annually, while YES Securities expects margins to remain tight. Higher crude costs and weaker downstream spreads are likely to weigh on profitability, even if EBITDA remains broadly stable.

Overall, analysts see the quarter where Reliance's consumer businesses continue to strengthen, but are not yet fully compensating for cyclical weakness in energy. Management commentary on margins, demand outlook, and capital allocation across segments will be critical triggers for the stock post results.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)