RIL investors lose Rs 3.5 lakh crore this year. Can Q1 earnings bring the stock back to life?

Reliance Industries investors have had a difficult 2026 so far. The stock has lagged the market and erased about Rs 3.53 lakh crore in investor wealth this year, putting focus on whether the June-quarter results can help revive sentiment.

RIL shares have been under pressure for much of the year as investors weighed slower retail growth, weakness in the oil and gas business, pressure on its refining cash cow and the absence of a strong trigger from the company’s consumer businesses. The stock was recently trading nearly 20% below its 52-week high of Rs 1,611.20, reached on January 5.

The concern is not about one business alone. Reliance is now judged across four large engines: oil-to-chemicals, Jio, retail and upstream oil and gas. In recent quarters, not all of them have fired together.


The company missed profit estimates in the last few quarters, with retail earnings slowing and the oil and gas segment hit by weaker output and softer price realisations. Retail margins were also affected by festive discounting, investments in hyper-local delivery startups and the impact of new labour codes.

The oil-to-chemicals business, which has long been Reliance’s biggest earnings engine, has faced its own questions. Reuters Breakingviews said in April that Reliance shares had underperformed the broader market as the Iran conflict weighed on refining, while windfall taxes, high freight costs and Chinese competition were among the concerns for the business.

Will Q1 results fire up the stock?

The answer depends on whether Reliance delivers more than a steady quarter. A strong O2C print can help. Jio can support earnings. But for a real rerating, investors may need better retail margins, clear Jio IPO timelines and confidence that upstream weakness is manageable.

Also Read: Jio Financial Q1 Results: Profit skyrockets 155% YoY to Rs 830 crore

Against this backdrop, the Q1 results will be important. Brokerages expect Reliance to report a steady quarter, led by recovery in O2C and continued growth in digital services. Retail may remain muted and oil and gas could drag because of lower production.

The stock has already priced in disappointment to some extent. If results show broad-based improvement and management commentary sounds confident, RIL could see a relief rally. If growth again rests only on O2C while retail stays soft, the market may wait longer before turning bullish.

O2C may do the heavy lifting

The O2C business is expected to be the main driver of the quarter. Kotak Equities expects RIL’s consolidated EBITDA to rise 8.4% year-on-year and 5.4% quarter-on-quarter. It sees O2C EBITDA rising 12.1% year-on-year and 12% sequentially.

Kotak expects the segment to benefit from strong SEZ refinery earnings, no windfall tax impact, US ethane-based petrochemicals and a weak rupee.

Jefferies has a stronger view on the segment. It expects consolidated EBITDA to grow 10% year-on-year, with O2C EBITDA rising 20%. The brokerage expects the business to gain from better petrochemical spreads and higher gross refining margin benefits for the SEZ refinery.

YES Securities expects refining throughput to decline 7.2% year-on-year and 2.3% quarter-on-quarter to 16.8 million metric tonnes. It expects gross refining margin at $10 per barrel.

JP Morgan said refining cracks and petrochemical margins were very strong in the first quarter. It noted that Reliance had taken a maintenance shutdown for one of its four crude distillation units during the quarter, but the volume loss could be offset by the weaker rupee.

Motilal Oswal expects standalone EBITDA at Rs 14,800 crore, up 12% year-on-year. It expects production meant for sale at 17.7 million metric tonnes, up 2% from a year earlier.

Jio remains the steady support

Digital services are expected to remain the cleaner growth pocket. Nuvama expects digital EBITDA to rise 11% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter, helped by higher average revenue per user and subscriber additions.

Nuvama expects ARPU to rise 3% year-on-year and 1% sequentially, while subscribers are expected to grow 7% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter. YES Securities expects telecom ARPU at Rs 215.4, with subscribers at 531.6 million.

For investors, Jio commentary will matter as much as the numbers. The market will look for signs on future tariff hikes, 5G monetisation, broadband growth and any update on the Jio listing roadmap. Reports earlier this year said Jio was preparing for a large IPO, with the listing seen as a possible trigger for Reliance’s valuation.

Retail still needs to prove itself

Reliance Retail remains a key concern. Kotak expects retail EBITDA to rise 5.6% year-on-year but fall 2.6% quarter-on-quarter. It expects retail revenue growth of about 12%.

Nuvama expects retail EBITDA to rise 3% year-on-year, citing margin pressure and weak consumption trends. Jefferies expects retail revenue to grow 11% and EBITDA to rise 8%. YES Securities expects retail revenue to grow 16% year-on-year to Rs 97,700 crore, but decline 0.8% sequentially.

The retail business was once seen as a big rerating trigger for the stock. Now investors want proof of profitable growth. Store additions, footfalls, grocery performance, fashion and lifestyle sales, and margin commentary will be watched closely.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)