Reliance Industries shares crash 6% in two days, wipes off Rs 1 lakh crore. What lies ahead?

The shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) have crashed around 6% in two days, wiping off more than Rs 1 lakh crore from the total market capitalisation of India’s most valuable company and dragging down benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty.

The shares of the Mukesh Ambani-led company dropped over 4% to trade at Rs 1,290.30 apiece on Monday, the lowest level in nearly one year. The sharp selloff pushed the market cap of the conglomerate well below the Rs 18 lakh crore mark. The stock is currently the top loser on benchmark indices, which are down marginally in the afternoon.

Momentum to remain weak?

At the current juncture, Reliance Industries shares are trading close to their 200-week moving average, as well as the yearly pivot support near the Rs 1,260 mark, making this zone a crucial reference point for market participants, said Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers. “Technical indicators, including RSI, MACD, and DMI, are currently reflecting a bearish undertone, indicating that momentum remains weak in the short term,” he added.

Despite this pressure, the analyst noted that the Rs 1,260 level has historically acted as a strong support, and if the stock manages to sustain above this point for the next 3-4 sessions, it could trigger a short-term rebound. “A stable close above this zone may attract fresh buying interest. For now, 1,260 serves as an important support, while 1,360 stands as the immediate resistance to watch,” he added.

Technical setup deteriorated significantly

Sachin Gupta, Vice President of Research at Choice Broking, meanwhile said that the setup has deteriorated significantly from a technical standpoint. “The previous uptrend has now transitioned into a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Additionally, the stock is trading firmly below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum,” he said.

The analyst added that the weakness appears to have been triggered by the reinstatement of export duties on diesel and ATF. “Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold levels, indicating the potential for a near-term bounce, the broader trend remains under pressure. For any recovery to gain traction, the stock would need to move back above the Rs 1,350 mark. Until then, the Rs 1,340 level, which previously acted as support, is expected to act as a significant resistance zone,” he said.

Gupta cautioned that in case the downward trend continues, the stock could gradually move towards the Rs 1,250–1,200 range, where a more reliable support zone may develop before any sustained recovery is seen.

The shares of the company last month declined after the government reintroduced windfall taxes on diesel and ATF exports. RIL’s two refineries at Jamnagar produce nearly 5 million tonnes of air turbine fuel, a large part of which is exported. Overall, it produces one-fourth of India’s total ATF.

Sharp selloff may invite minor relief rally

“The long-standing sideways trend for the equity has come to an abrupt end. Since April 2025, the stock had been locked in a period of consolidation, oscillating within a defined range between 1600 and 1330. That stability vanished in today’s session as a sharp sell-off forcibly breached the multi-month support floor of 1330,” said Rajesh Palviya, Head - Research, Axis Securities.

“The breakdown was underscored by a significant surge in trading volumes, suggesting strong consensus among sellers. Technical indicators across multiple timeframes now point toward a deepened bearish bias, signalling a potential shift in the long-term price trajectory,” he added.

While the sharp nature of the fall may invite a minor relief rally or "dead cat bounce”, the analyst warned of heavy supply pressure. Any recovery attempts toward the 1,340–1,380 zone, the previous support-turned-resistance are likely to be met with aggressive selling as traders look to exit positions at better prices, he further said.

Reliance Industries shares have declined more than 3% in the past one week, and around 8% in the past one month. The stock is down nearly 18% in 2026 so far. In the longer term, the shares of the company gained 11% in three years and 31% in five years.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)