Probability of recession in US rises to over 60 per cent in 2 years: JPMorgan

The US economy has a greater than 50-50 chance of tipping into a recession in the next two years, according to a model tracked by JPMorgan Chase.

The probability of a US recession within one year is almost 28 per cent, and rises to more than 60 per cent over the next two years, researchers wrote in a note this week. Over the next three years, the odds are higher than 80 per cent, according to the note.

JPMorgan’s model includes indicators ranging from consumer and business sentiment to primeage male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product. The bank’s gauge is more pessimistic than a recession tracker maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which shows a 14.5 per cent chance of a recession a year from now.