Not border flareup, a new X-factor will decide Modi’s fate this election

The biggest festival of Indian democracy, the general elections, are just weeks away, and in the multi-layered politics dominated by caste, religion and regional equations, a new, much stronger factor is threatening to alter all dynamics this time around.

Voting data for recent elections in states and the last general elections show increased participation of women and analysts say there is a strong chance that women voters will play a decisive role in the upcoming election.

Next week, the Election Commission of India is widely expected to announce the schedule for the 17th Lok Sabha election due in April-May 2019.


Women’s rising turnout in elections and their growing political assertiveness will be an important swing factor in the upcoming election, brokerage Centrum Broking said in a report released on Monday.

Women’s turnout is increasing with each election. Voting pattern data suggests while men still outnumbered women as registered voters, the gender gap narrowed substantially in the last Lok Sabha election.

The increased women’s participation is not driven by higher voter registration but due to greater turnout at the ballot box, the brokerage said.

Rising participation of women represents a remarkable trend and there is every likelihood that women’s turnout could meet – or even exceed – that of men in 2019, Centrum Broking said.

If the trends of recent state assembly elections are any indication, women will most likely hold the key to the 2019 elections. Data shows in the past decade, women voters were the deciding factor in quite a few state elections, such as UP in 2017 and Bihar in 2015.

Besides rising awareness due to internet penetration and rising education levels, peaceful polls are seen as a major factor boosting women's participation in elections.

"While education and awareness are two important drivers of this trend, the major factor giving a big fillip to women’s participation at the ballot box is peaceful polls," the brokerage said.

There appears to be some realisation among political parties about this emerging X-factor. The incumbent Modi government has doles out several women-centric schemes such as Beti Bachao-Beti Padhao Yojna, Ujjwala, Sukanya Samriddhi Account and the Maternity Benefit (Amendment) Act 2016, drawing more women to participate in the political discourse.

It is likely that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will reap some of the benefits of these initiatives in the form of higher women votes in favour of the party.

"Rising turnout and growing political assertiveness of Indian women are making their voices and policy preferences heard loudly across the country’s political stage," the brokerage said.

Higher participation of women, which can affect Modi’s re-election prospects, is no less than an achievement for Indian democracy, said the report.