Nifty records longest winning streak since launch, beats 2007’s 11-day feat

Dalal Street's record-breaking rally, which has taken headline equity index Nifty to fresh all-time record high of 25,268, on Friday rewrote another page of market history. This was the first time since the launch of the index in 1996 that Nifty has rallied non-stop for 12 consecutive sessions.

Nifty, which ended Friday's session 84 points higher at 25,235.90, has been seeing daily upsides non-stop from August 14, a record winning streak of 12 trading sessions.

Nifty's previous best winning streak was in October 2007 when the index rallied non-stop for 11 days. Other long winning streaks have been recorded in January 2015 and April 2014 - both 10-days-long.


A part of Friday's positive momentum is also being attributed to MSCI August rejig which was scheduled for today and was believed to lead to net passive FII inflow of at least $4-4.5 billion.

However, historical trends indicate that such long winning streaks are likely to be met by negative returns. An analysis of the last six such long winning streaks by Samco Securities shows that the index has lost 3% of its value on an average in the next one month.

In May 2006, the index rallied non-stop for 9 days but the next month was followed by 24% negative returns.

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For the week, Nifty recorded a gain of 1.66% and 1.14% rise in August. The historical track record for September is mixed with equal number of gains and losses in the month during the last 12 years.

Going forward, analysts expect market movement to hinge on key economic indicators, such as inflation reports and employment data, which could either sustain the current rally or prompt a pullback. Volatility may also increase as investors react to corporate earnings and any unexpected global news, said Vikram Kasat of Prabhudas Lilladher.

Global markets are currently resonating with the US Fed’s pledges of a rate cut in September.

"However, the dollar is strengthening given healthy US GDP growth, strong retail sales and expectation that the upcoming US job claims will be steady leading to shallow rate cuts in the future. Though the domestic market is currently showing a positive bias, the Indian Q1 GDP growth is expected to be moderate, while premium valuation and a lack of fresh triggers could see further momentum buildup in value stocks," said Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial.

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