Nifty may stay volatile and trade in a wide range on Budget day

NSE Nifty traded in a narrow band of 25 points on Thursday as the market stayed rangebound ahead of Union Budget. The index finally settled with a modest gain of 30 points or 0.25 per cent at 11,946.75.

Investors on Dalal Street were indecisive ahead of one of the biggest events of the year. Instead of a customary vote on account, the government had presented a full Budget in February. Though many expectations have been built around this event, it is likely to remain a non-event, given what was announced before elections.

We may see Friday’s session ingrained with volatility, as the market may take a sustainable directional move on either side. The 12,000 and 12,060 levels are likely to act as resistance, while supports come may came in at 11,900 and 11,780.


The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 58.4248 and it has marked a fresh 14-period high, which is bullish.

The daily MACD stayed bullish while trading above its signal line. No significant formations were seen on the candles.

We expect the market to open flat and trade in a capped range in the morning. Then, Dalal Street will start reacting to the Budget announcements. It would be prudent not to expect moons and stars from the government in this Budget as it is likely to be a mere extension to what was presented in February.

Moreover, being equipped with a firm mandate, the government may not hand out too many goodies and take populist measures, but may take some steps which may seem bitter in the short term. but may be better for the economy in the longer term.

All in all, Nifty has appreciated more than 7 per cent since February. The broader technical and the global macro environment do not provide a good ground for any substantial rally. Apart from the knee-jerk reactions that the market may see, Budget may largely remain a non-event for Dalal Street.

We recommend traders not to chase intraday rallies and protect profits at higher levels. Big purchases should be made only after the Budget is fully digested and the market takes an established directional call.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)