NALCO shares scale fresh record high after 14% jump in 4 days. Can the aluminium-backed momentum last?

Shares of National Aluminium Company Ltd (NALCO) surged to a fresh 52-week high on Wednesday, extending a sharp four-day rally that has added 14% to the stock, as a spike in global aluminium prices and improving industry fundamentals lifted investor sentiment.

NALCO shares climbed as much as 3% to Rs 357.50 on the BSE on Wednesday, taking their recent gains to 14% in just four sessions. The move comes against the backdrop of aluminium prices hitting their highest level in more than three years, with London Metal Exchange prices breaching the $3,000-per-tonne mark to trade at $3,082.

Global prices provide the spark

The rally in aluminium has been driven by tight supply conditions, as a cap on smelting capacity in China and production constraints in Europe due to elevated electricity costs have weighed on global inventories. At the same time, demand prospects remain strong, supported by sustained requirements from the construction and renewable energy sectors, Bloomberg said in a note.

The improving global outlook has reinforced expectations of a tighter market ahead. Last month, CNBC TV-18 reported that Brijendra Pratak Singh, managing director of NALCO, said the global aluminium market is expected to move into a supply deficit in 2026 and 2027 as demand continues to rise across multiple sectors. “The demands are increasing from the EV sector, construction sector, power sector, and now huge data centres are coming,” Singh said.

NALCO Q2 results

The recent surge also builds on a solid set of earnings. Nalco’s September-quarter net profit climbed 36.7% year-on-year to Rs 1,430 crore, up from Rs 1,046 crore a year earlier, aided by higher realisations and improved operating efficiency. Revenue rose 31.5% to Rs 4,292 crore from Rs 4,001 crore in the year-ago period.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation increased 24.8% to Rs 1,932.9 crore, while operating margins expanded to 45% from 38.7%, reflecting stronger pricing power and cost discipline.

In a note following the results, Axis Securities said NALCO’s timely expansion and ramp-up of the fifth stream alumina refinery, with a planned capacity addition of 1 million tonnes per annum by FY27, would be a key growth driver, even as the project has seen cost overruns. The brokerage also flagged the company’s broader capex plan of Rs 30,000 crore for a 0.5 MTPA smelter and a 1,080 MW captive power plant, with spending expected to accelerate from FY28.

Momentum turns crowded

The stock’s longer-term run has been equally striking. NALCO shares delivered nearly 50% returns in 2025 and are already up 11% so far in 2026.

Technically, the stock is trading above all eight of its key simple moving averages, from the 5-day to the 200-day, signalling bullish undertones across timeframes.

The Relative Strength Index stands at 85.5, a level considered strongly overbought, suggesting the possibility of a pullback. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains firmly positive at 18.9 and above both its centre and signal lines, reinforcing the strength of the current trend.

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