Muhurat trading: History says D-Street might just give you a Diwali surprise
Usually there is not much movement in stocks during the Muhurat trading.
By Amit Mudgill, ETMarkets.com |
BCCL
NEW DELHI: BSE and NSE will conduct the once-in-a-year Muhurat trading on Wednesday from 5.15 pm to 6.30 pm. In this session, whose timings are decided based on planetary positions, traders retain the age-old tradition of executing trades on Diwali, which is also the first day of the Hindu accounting calendar, Samvat, as it is deemed auspicious to start new business activity in the light of diyas and amid colours of rangoli patterns.
The market generally remains positively biased on this day. It is evident from the fact that the BSE Sensex has closed in the positive in 10 out of last 13 Muhurat trading sessions since 2005. On Monday, Sensex ended Samvat 2074 at 3,4991 and Nifty50 at 10,530.
Last year, Muhurat trading was conducted for an hour between 6.30 and 7.30 pm, when the Sensex had declined 194.40 points, or 0.60 per cent, to 32,390.
As trading volumes are generally low in this short session, usually there is not much movement in stocks during the Muhurat trading.
On October 28, 2008, the Diwali day, Sensex surprised many by climbing 5.86 per cent in a single session. The index settled the day at 9,008. For the rest of the years, the index remained in a narrow range of 0.5 per cent. Only in 2012 ( down 0.28 per cent), 2007 (down 0.79 per cent) and 2017 (down 0.60 per cent), did the Sensex end lower in Muhurat trading.
Samvat 2075 projections
Most said the market will hit new highs over the next 12 months, while four felt Sensex and Nifty would be either at the same level or go lower by next Diwali.
The average projection for Nifty target by next Diwali came in at 11,755. The bullish argument is largely based on projections of the Modi government’s return to power with a solid majority.
Analysts believe the biggest lesson one could pick from Samvat 2074 is that one should not be complacent over market rally at any given point. One should always ensure margin of safety and avoid venturing into momentum plays with no fundamental backing.
The market generally remains positively biased on this day. It is evident from the fact that the BSE Sensex has closed in the positive in 10 out of last 13 Muhurat trading sessions since 2005. On Monday, Sensex ended Samvat 2074 at 3,4991 and Nifty50 at 10,530.
Last year, Muhurat trading was conducted for an hour between 6.30 and 7.30 pm, when the Sensex had declined 194.40 points, or 0.60 per cent, to 32,390.
As trading volumes are generally low in this short session, usually there is not much movement in stocks during the Muhurat trading.
On October 28, 2008, the Diwali day, Sensex surprised many by climbing 5.86 per cent in a single session. The index settled the day at 9,008. For the rest of the years, the index remained in a narrow range of 0.5 per cent. Only in 2012 ( down 0.28 per cent), 2007 (down 0.79 per cent) and 2017 (down 0.60 per cent), did the Sensex end lower in Muhurat trading.
Samvat 2075 projections
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At least 12 of 20 top money managers on Dalal Street, who participated in the Diwali Survey of ETMarkets.com, hope to see the Sensex much higher by next Diwali, with some projections going up to 40,000-45,000 levels. Most said the market will hit new highs over the next 12 months, while four felt Sensex and Nifty would be either at the same level or go lower by next Diwali.
The average projection for Nifty target by next Diwali came in at 11,755. The bullish argument is largely based on projections of the Modi government’s return to power with a solid majority.
Analysts believe the biggest lesson one could pick from Samvat 2074 is that one should not be complacent over market rally at any given point. One should always ensure margin of safety and avoid venturing into momentum plays with no fundamental backing.
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