M&M Q4 preview: PAT to rise up to 48% YoY amid sequential setback; revenue to grow up to 24% on strong volumes

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) is expected to report a strong year-on-year performance in Q4FY25, driven by robust growth in both automotive and tractor segments. However, brokerages remain cautious on margins and sequential profitability amid rising input costs, higher EV mix, and operating deleverage. While volumes and revenues are expected to remain healthy, profitability is likely to vary across estimates.

The company is expected to report a net profit in the range of Rs 3,236 crore to Rs 3,609 crore in the March quarter, according to estimates by four brokerages. While Kotak Equities remains the most bullish with a 48% YoY growth estimate, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) projects a relatively moderate rise of 33%. Sequentially, PAT is expected to decline across most estimates.

The topline is expected to grow between 19% and 24% YoY, with revenue estimated in the range of Rs 37,287 crore to Rs 38,912 crore.


We also considered estimates from YES Securities and HDFC Securities.

The maker of the Thar and Scorpio-N will announce its January-March quarter results on Tuesday, May 5.

Here’s what brokerages expect across key parameters:

PAT (Profit After Tax)

– Kotak Equities expects PAT at Rs 3,609 crore, up 48% YoY and down 10% QoQ.

– Motilal Oswal pegs PAT at Rs 3,236 crore, up 33% YoY.

– YES Securities estimates PAT at Rs 3,492 crore, up 43% YoY and down 13% QoQ.

– HDFC Securities forecasts PAT at Rs 3,506 crore, up 44% YoY and down 13% QoQ.

Revenue

– Kotak Equities expects revenue at Rs 38,094 crore, up 22% YoY and down 1.1% QoQ, driven by strong growth in both automotive and tractor segments.

– Motilal Oswal estimates revenue at Rs 38,912 crore, up 24% YoY.

– YES Securities pegs revenue at Rs 37,287 crore, up 19% YoY and down 3% QoQ, impacted by lower blended ASPs.

– HDFC Securities forecasts revenue at Rs 37,817 crore, up 21% YoY and down 2% QoQ.

EBITDA or Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation

– Kotak Equities expects EBITDA at Rs 5,536 crore, up 18% YoY and down 2.3% QoQ.

– Motilal Oswal estimates EBITDA at Rs 5,741 crore, up 23% YoY.

– YES Securities pegs EBITDA at Rs 5,285 crore, though estimates indicate pressure on a sequential basis due to higher costs.

EBITDA margin

– Kotak Equities sees margins at 14.5%, down 40 bps YoY and 20 bps QoQ, impacted by commodity headwinds and higher EV mix.

– Motilal Oswal expects margins at 14.8%, down 10 bps YoY, with stable margins supported by price hikes.

– YES Securities estimates margins at 14.2%, down 80 bps YoY and 50 bps QoQ, due to higher raw material and staff costs.

– HDFC Securities pegs margins at 14.1%, down 87 bps YoY and 65 bps QoQ, citing cost pressures and lower operating leverage.

Volumes

– Kotak Equities expects volumes at 3,90,262 units, up 25% YoY and down 6% QoQ, led by strong traction in SUVs and LCVs.

– Motilal Oswal estimates volumes at 3,96,762 units, up 24% YoY, driven by strong growth in tractors and passenger vehicles.

– YES Securities sees overall volumes growing 25.1% YoY but declining 7% QoQ, with tractor volumes rising sharply YoY but falling sequentially due to seasonality.

Overall, M&M is expected to deliver strong volume-led growth in Q4FY25, though margin pressures and sequential softness in profitability remain key concerns for investors.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)