Miss just 5 best days of Nifty and lose big: How 21-year data from 2005-2026 shows cost of timing the market

A few days can make a surprisingly large difference to long-term equity returns. An analysis by Abakkus Mutual Fund shows how missing even the strongest trading days over 21 years can sharply reduce the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) across major Indian equity indices.

The analysis covers the period from April 2005 to July 2026 and compares the returns earned by investors who stayed invested throughout with those who missed the market's best 5, 10, 30 or 50 days.

For the Nifty 50 TRI, staying invested through the entire period delivered a CAGR of 13.67%. Missing the best five days brought that down to 11.31%, while missing the best 10 days reduced it further to 9.75%.


The impact became much sharper as more of the market's strongest days were missed. Investors who missed the best 30 days earned a CAGR of 4.68%, while missing the best 50 days brought the CAGR down to just 1%.

Also read: Nifty price-to-book valuation hits pre-Covid level. Why the index is still not cheapNifty 50 historical crashes

The Nifty 50 saw two major crashes over more than 20% from 1991-2026. During the Covid-19 crash in January 2020, the index fell 38.4% in just 69 days and completed its recovery cycle in 300 days. The Global Financial Crisis in January 2008 was the worst crash recorded in the report, with the Nifty 50 plunging 59.9% from its peak and taking 1,032 days, or nearly three years, to fully recover.

The Nifty 100 TRI showed a similar pattern. Staying invested throughout the period generated a CAGR of 14%. Missing the best five days reduced this to 11.68%, while missing the best 10 days brought it down to 10.10%. Missing the best 30 days lowered the CAGR to 5.07%, and missing the best 50 days left investors with a CAGR of 1.40%.

Over the past 21 years, the Nifty 100 Index has witnessed five major declines of more than 20%, occurring once every 4.2 years on average. These sharp corrections have also taken the longest to recover from, with the 2008 global financial crisis marking the deepest fall.

Between January 2008 and November 2010, the index plunged 61.5%, taking 294 days to hit the bottom and another 738 days to fully recover, for a total of 1,032 days. During the COVID-19 crash between January 2020 and November 2020, the index fell 38.1% in just 66 days, but recovered much faster, regaining its losses in 231 days and taking 297 days in total from the start of the decline to full recovery.

Nifty Midcap over the years

The difference was even more pronounced for the Nifty Midcap 150 TRI. Staying invested for the full period delivered a 17.20% CAGR. Missing the best five days reduced this to 15.12%, while missing the best 10 days brought it down to 13.61%.

Read more: BSE’s Nifty50 hot seat may trigger $695 mn inflows. What this means for shareholdersThe Nifty Midcap 150 Index has gone through five falls of more than 20% over the past 21 years, with such major declines occurring once every 4.2 years on average. The worst came between January 2008 and May 2014, when the index lost 73.4%.

It took 427 days to hit the bottom, followed by another 1,901 days to recover fully, making it a 2,328-day journey from the start of the fall to recovery. The next major episode came between January 2018 and December 2020, when the index fell 44.2% over 805 days. But once it bottomed, the recovery was much quicker, with the index taking 253 days to regain the lost ground and 1,058 days in total from the start of the decline to full recovery.

Smallcap 250 historic moves

Missing the best 30 days cut the CAGR to 9.21%, nearly half the return from staying invested throughout. For investors who missed the best 50 days, the CAGR fell to 5.71%. The Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI also recorded a 15.80% CAGR for investors who stayed invested throughout the period. Missing the best five days reduced this to 13.83%, while missing the best 10 days brought it down to 12.46%.

Missing the best 30 days reduced the CAGR to 8.25%, while missing the best 50 days brought it down to 4.91%.

The Nifty Smallcap 250 Index has seen six major falls of more than 20% over the past 21 years, with such declines occurring once every 3.5 years on average. The deepest crash came between January 2008 and September 2014, when the index plunged 76%.

It took 432 days to hit the bottom and another 2,010 days to recover fully, making it a 2,442-day stretch from the start of the fall to a complete recovery. The next prolonged small-cap downturn came between January 2018 and May 2021, when the index fell 60.8% over 799 days. It then took another 412 days to complete the recovery, taking the total period to 1,211 days.

The numbers leave little room for debate: missing just a handful of the market's strongest days can materially drag down long-term CAGR. The longer the list of missed days gets, the wider the gap becomes. Over 21 years, being out of the market on the wrong days proved far more costly than simply staying invested.

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