Metal stocks shed up to 10% last week. Here's why

Shares of metal companies such as Tata Steel, Hindalco, and National Aluminium fell up to 10% in the last week amid recessionary fears in the US, low demand in China, and poor Q3 results.
Shares of Hindustan Zinc, JSW Steel, Steel Authority of India, and Vedanta also declined up to 4% in the week gone by.

"Recessionary fears in the US have been a prime concern for the recent correction. The US accounts for 6% of global demand, and moreover, it is the spillover effect market is factoring in. Poor results from industry majors and the Adani exposure have added to the sentiments," Sreeram Ram Das, Vice President at Green Portfolio PMS, said.


"Markets had been overly optimistic with the Chinese reopening considering China accounts for 50% of the global steel demand, but the post-Covid China scenario is depressing as the infra developments, residential demand, and capex will be materially lower than going into Covid – times have changed, and the market is realising this," he added.

In Q3, steel companies also saw a decline in their profit, which led to a further fall in stock prices. Tata Steel in Q3 FY23 reported a consolidated net loss of Rs 2,224 crore for the December quarter, while the company had posted a profit of Rs 9,572 crore in the last-year same period.

Meanwhile, JSW Steel also reported an 89% YoY fall in net profit at Rs 490 crore for the three months ended December 2022. Vedanta also reported a 42% YoY decline in its consolidated net profit to Rs 3092 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2022.

Following the Q3 results, brokerage firm Anand Rathi said, "During the quarter, Tata Steel witnessed the full impact of correction in steel prices after the imposition of an export duty in India. Tata Steel’s overall consolidated sales volumes are expected to be 0.5 MT, higher compared to Q3FY23. We remain positive on Tata Steel and maintain our Buy rating with a revised target price of Rs 133."

As per Trendlyne data, the highest target price for Vedanta goes up to Rs 551, while the average target price estimate is Rs 367, which shows an upside potential of 18.2% from the current market prices.

The consensus recommendation from 13 analysts for the stock is a Hold. Out of the 13 analysts covering the stock, seven have strong buy and buy ratings, while two have strong sell and sell ratings, and the rest four have hold ratings.

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