Lack of clarity on Reliance Jio launch date may cap upside for RIL shares

Sanam Mirchandani

MUMBAI: Reliance Industries (RIL) has surprised the Street with better-than-expected March quarter earnings, but this may not translate into sharp gains for the stock Monday morning. Analysts said lack of clarity over the much-awaited launch of the conglomerate’s telecom services may put a lid on gains in the short term. Positions in Reliance Industries stock futures and options also indicate that the stock is likely to see a rise of only 2-3 per cent from current levels immediately.

The petrochemical behemoth reported earnings after market hours on Friday. In response to the results, the company’s global depository receipt on the London Stock Exchange rose 0.8 per cent to $31.35. On Friday, the stock ended down 0.2 per cent at Rs 1,038.75 on BSE.


"On Reliance Jio, we still have not got any clarity. The company has said that the commercial launch should be within a few months, which can be three months or six months or nine months. GRMs in international market have also fallen in the last one month, which may also affect sentiment," said Sudeep Anand, analyst at IDBI Capital.

RIL said its telecom unit aims to achieve 90 per cent population coverage before starting commercial operations and added that it’s already around the 70 per cent mark. The test programme will be progressively upgraded into commercial operations in the coming months, the company said.

"Lack of clarity on Jio is a concern to the market but we are not much worried about that. We expect the Jio launch to happen in the next few months. Entering the market now would be difficult but the proposition they are bringing with their retail platform, media and banking tie-ups along with reasonable pricing should help Jio gain decent market share," said Prayesh Jain, AVP-research at IIFL said.

"The way GRM margins are panning out, they will soften further. This kind of high GRM cannot sustain," said Daljeet Kohli, head of research at IndiaNivesh Securities.