Kaynes Tech shares rebound 4% in relief rally after 40% crash in 1 month. What’s fuelling the rise today?

Shares of Kaynes Technology India rose as much as 4% to a day’s high of Rs 4,033 on Thursday, rebounding after a steep 10% slide in the previous session, to help cap a brutal 40% fall in a month. The bounce comes partly on the back of oversold technicals, but sentiment was also supported by Nomura’s Buy rating on the stock despite the brokerage sharply cutting its target price to Rs 5,455 from Rs 8,478. Even after the revision, the new target implies an upside of about 40% from current levels.

The recent 40% correction has largely stemmed from concerns around accounting and collection issues in the smart meters segment. Nomura, however, emphasised that these reflect “reporting and execution issues” rather than corporate governance lapses.

The brokerage trimmed revenue estimates by 5–9% and cut EBITDA margin assumptions by 30 bps, leading to an 8–14% reduction in FY26–28F EPS forecasts. It also lowered the stock’s target P/E multiple to 35x from 50x, placing it at the lower end of Kaynes’ historical 35–55x trading band.


Despite this, Nomura argued the stock remains attractively valued at around 26x FY28F P/E (adjusted for subsidiaries), supported by an expected 40% EPS CAGR over FY26–28F. It added that improving working capital—expected to fall below 90 days by FY26F from 113 days in 1HFY26—along with a ramp-up in newer business lines and better accounting disclosures, could act as key catalysts.

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, retained its Equal-weight rating on Kaynes with a target price of Rs 6,155 per share. The brokerage highlighted improvements in disclosures and the scaling-up of internal software systems. It expects Kaynes to turn operating cash flow positive by FY26, supported by government subsidies beginning in the third quarter of FY26, and noted that backward integration into copper clad laminates and prepregs should aid margin expansion over time.

The sharp correction in the stock that started earlier last week followed a note by Kotak Institutional Equities, which flagged inconsistencies in disclosures between the standalone entity and its subsidiaries for FY2024–25. Kotak pointed out that subsidiary Iskraemeco reported purchases of Rs 180 crore from Kaynes Electronics Manufacturing in FY2025, year-end payables of Rs 320 crore to Kaynes Technology and Rs 180 crore to Kaynes Electronics Manufacturing, and receivables of Rs 190 crore from Kaynes Technology—figures that raised questions about inter-company transactions and disclosure clarity.

Kaynes Technology shares remain down nearly 50% on a year-to-date basis, even after Thursday’s partial recovery.

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