Kalyan Jewellers stock to double from here? Why analysts are bullish

What initially appeared to be a difficult quarter for Kalyan Jewellers, one of India's leading organised jewellery retailers, has turned into one of the biggest positive surprises for investors in Q1.

The odds seemed firmly stacked against the company. Soaring oil prices, rising inflation concerns and renewed expectations of higher interest rates amid the West Asia crisis coincided with the once-in-three-years Adhik Maas period, which typically dampens wedding-related jewellery demand. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to curb gold purchases to help arrest the freefall in the Indian rupee, while customs on gold were raised to 15% from 6%.

Despite these headwinds, Kalyan Jewellers has managed to flip the narrative almost entirely. Investors have responded swiftly. The stock has rallied more than 35% in just three trading sessions. Even after the sharp rebound, however, the shares remain down around 3% in 2026 following the correction seen earlier this year.

Decoding Kalyan Jewellers share price rally

The company's first-quarter business update indicated an estimated 38% year-on-year growth in consolidated revenue for Q1FY27.

Kalyan Jewellers attributed the strong performance to healthy operating momentum and robust same-store sales growth across its key Indian markets. This was achieved despite the entire 28-day Adhik Maas period, which occurs once every three years and is generally considered unfavourable for weddings, falling during the recently concluded quarter.

Kalyan's International prowess

The company's international business reported revenue growth of around 35% compared with the corresponding quarter last year. Within the Middle East, revenue increased approximately 30% year-on-year, driven primarily by same-store sales growth despite lower customer footfall in April due to geopolitical tensions in the region.

International operations contributed around 14% to Kalyan Jewellers' consolidated revenue during the quarter.

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Other revenue levers, store growth

Kalyan Jewellers' digital-first jewellery platform, Candere, recorded revenue growth of approximately 112% over the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. During the quarter, the company opened 12 Kalyan showrooms across India, while Candere added five new stores.

The company said the current quarter has started on a positive note and remains optimistic about its upcoming showroom launches, supported by new collections and marketing campaigns ahead of the festive and wedding season.

As of June 30, 2026, Kalyan Jewellers operated 524 showrooms across India and overseas. This included 354 Kalyan showrooms in India, 38 in the Middle East, two in the United States, one in the United Kingdom and 129 Candere outlets.

Time to buy Kalyan shares or wait for dip?

Citi remains firmly bullish on the stock and believes it has the potential to double to Rs 750, double from current levels. The brokerage expects Kalyan Jewellers' franchise-led expansion strategy to continue supporting revenue growth. It also believes the company's asset-light model will aid deleveraging and improve return on capital employed (ROCE).

ICICI Securities has maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 670, implying an upside of 80%. The brokerage said Kalyan Jewellers' strong Q1FY27 performance despite multiple headwinds reflects resilient underlying jewellery demand.

It believes continued store expansion and the ongoing formalisation of the jewellery industry reinforce its positive outlook, although it cautioned that any structural decline in natural diamond prices remains a key risk.

ICICI Securities reiterated its expectation that Kalyan Jewellers will sustain its growth momentum in FY27, modelling a standalone jewellery revenue CAGR of around 22%. The brokerage has marginally increased its FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates to factor in stronger-than-expected Q1FY27 revenue growth and now projects revenue, EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 19%, 16% and 24%, respectively, over FY26-28E. It has maintained its Buy rating with an unchanged DCF-based target price of Rs 670.

Technical’s signal strength

Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said KALYANKJIL is currently trading around Rs 446.70 and has staged a sharp rebound from its 200-week EMA, indicating strong buying interest emerging from long-term support levels.

He noted that the stock has also delivered a decisive breakout above its prolonged sideways consolidation on the weekly chart, signalling a potential trend reversal and improving the medium-term technical outlook.

Read more: BofA cuts 2026 average gold forecast, sees long-term upside

According to Tailor, the breakout has been accompanied by a significant increase in trading volumes, indicating strong market participation and lending credibility to the bullish move. The stock has also reclaimed key moving averages, pointing to strengthening price structure. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 56.74 after rebounding sharply from the oversold zone and moving above the midpoint, indicating improving momentum and a positive shift in sentiment.

He said the Rs 435-400 zone is likely to act as immediate support, coinciding with the 20-week and 50-week EMA cluster. As long as the stock remains above these levels, the medium-term trend is expected to stay positive, with the potential to move towards the Rs 500-525 zone. However, a decisive break below the Rs 435-420 support zone could trigger fresh profit booking and result in a decline towards the Rs 350-360 support region.

Shitij Gandhi, AVP - Equity Technical Research, SMC Global Securities, said Kalyan Jewellers is witnessing a strong recovery after a prolonged corrective phase, with the daily chart indicating the formation of a broad rectangular consolidation.

According to Gandhi, the stock has repeatedly found support around the Rs 330-335 zone, highlighting sustained buying interest at lower levels. The subsequent rebound has pushed the stock above its short-term moving averages, signalling improving momentum.

He said immediate resistance is placed near Rs 445, which marks the upper boundary of the consolidation range, while higher resistance levels are seen around Rs 505 and Rs 530. A decisive breakout above Rs 445 could confirm a fresh bullish leg and pave the way for a move towards these higher resistance levels.

What to watch for Q1 results?

Key risks include any delay in showroom expansion and higher competitive intensity in Kalyan Jewellers' core South Indian markets.

Going ahead, investors will closely track the management's commentary, demand during the upcoming festive season and the pace of the company's expansion plans over the coming quarters.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)