July 29 could be the game changer – stay tuned for trend reversal, says Harshubh Shah

The Indian equity market continued to face headwinds, ending in the red for the fourth consecutive week. The benchmark Nifty50 index slipped 0.5% during the week ended July 25, 2025, weighed down by sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling and rising caution among market participants.

FPI Selling Intensifies

July has proven to be a turbulent month for the markets, with FPIs turning persistent net sellers. In 14 out of the 19 trading sessions this month, they offloaded equities, leading to a net outflow of Rs 20,262 crore (as of July 25).


This selling pressure has been a key overhang, curbing any meaningful upside despite supportive global cues.

Time-Based Reversal Validated Once Again

In the previous weekly outlook, we had highlighted the period of July 24–25 as a potential reversal zone for positional traders. True to the forecast, the Nifty reversed sharply from the 25,246 level on July 24, ending the week at 24,806 — reaffirming the effectiveness of our time-based approach.

Even for intraday traders, the July 22–23 window proved highly rewarding, as predicted momentum played out with clean, directional moves. Here's a breakdown of how our intraday time levels aligned with real market action:

Intraday Timing Highlights (July 21–25):

July 21 (Monday):

Swing high at 11:00 AM (vs projected 10:30 AM)

Swing low at 1:45 PM (vs 1:30 PM)

July 22 (Tuesday):

Day high at 9:15 AM (vs 9:20 AM)

Day low at 12:00 PM (vs 12:20 PM)

Swing high at 1:00 PM (vs 1:05 PM)

July 23 (Wednesday):

Day low at 9:40 AM (vs 9:20 AM)

Momentum picked up at 11:20 AM as expected

July 24 (Thursday):

Selling intensified at 10:20 AM, low made at 12:15 PM (close to 12:30 PM)

July 25 (Friday):

High at 9:25 AM

Swing low at 12:10 PM matched our timing

These consistent alignments with projected time slots highlight how "Time drives price" remains a powerful concept in market navigation.

Outlook for July 28–August 1

As we head into the final week of July and the beginning of August, July 29 stands out as a key date that could potentially mark a trend reversal — either a short-term top or bottom. Positional traders should keep this date on close watch.

Support Zones:
24,850 / 24,805 / 24,676 / 24,538 / 24,450 / 24,355


Resistance Zones:
24,855 / 24,980 / 25,080 / 25,147 / 25,320 / 25,434

Important Intraday Time Slots (July 28–August 1):

Monday, July 28: 10:20 AM, 11:10 AM, 12:50 PM, 2:15 PM

Tuesday, July 29: 9:15 AM, 10:20 AM, 12:50 PM, 1:35 PM, 2:35 PM

Wednesday, July 30: 9:30 AM, 11:35 AM, 12:50 PM, 2:40 PM

Thursday, July 31: 12:40 PM, 2:40 PM

Friday, August 1: 11:25 AM, 1:35 PM, 2:20 PM

With precision timing once again playing a critical role in both intraday and positional strategies, traders and investors would do well to respect these windows.

Key Takeaway

The Nifty remains in a tight zone of uncertainty amid relentless FPI outflows and technical weakness. However, July 29 could act as an inflection point, potentially offering a clear directional cue. As always, timing remains crucial — and time-based analytics could continue to offer the edge needed to outperform.

(The author is Director, Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd)
SEBI Registration – INH000009676

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)