Jio Platforms is becoming more than a telecom company: Dolat Capital

Jio Platforms Ltd.’s next phase may depend less on adding mobile subscribers and more on monetising the digital infrastructure it has built, as tariff repair, 5G upgrades, home broadband and enterprise services push the company toward an integrated telecom-and-technology model.

Dolat Capital initiated coverage on Jio Platforms with an Accumulate rating and a target price of Rs 1,435. After listing at a healthy premium of 21% on Wednesday, Jio Platforms shares rallied another 5% this morning to touch a peak of Rs 1,490 on BSE.

The brokerage expects JPL to evolve into an “integrated telecom cum tech play” as it scales and monetises investments in emerging businesses.


Reliance Jio Infocomm, which contributes about 88% of JPL’s revenue and 95% of its EBITDA, has established market leadership with 536 million subscribers and about 40% market share. The business recorded revenue, EBITDA and adjusted-profit compound annual growth rates of 15%, 21% and 28%, respectively, over the past six years.

Dolat expects JPL’s revenue, EBITDA and adjusted profit to grow at compound annual rates of 13%, 15% and 21%, respectively, between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2029. The growth will be driven by tariff hikes, premiumisation, 5G monetisation and usage-based pricing, along with home broadband, enterprise services, digital products and international partnerships.

Also Read | Jio Platforms shares jump 5% on Day 2 after ending 27% higher on debut day. Buy, sell or hold?

Tariff repair could lift cash flows

Jio has prioritised subscriber additions over pricing, allowing Bharti Airtel’s average revenue per user to rise to a premium of about 22%. Dolat expects that gap to narrow as JioBharat users migrate to smartphones and the company gradually reduces its strategic tariff discount.

The brokerage expects industry tariff hikes to continue every 2.5 to three years, with the next increase likely around the first quarter of fiscal 2028. It expects average revenue per user across the industry to move toward about Rs 300, supported by 5G upgrades, differential pricing and possible usage-based data tariffs.

Jio’s opportunity is not limited to new subscriber additions. Around 240 million users remain on 2G networks, creating a potential conversion pool as consumers shift to 4G and 5G. Dolat estimates JPL’s addressable opportunity at about 340 million subscribers through fiscal 2031, including market-share gains and 2G-to-4G/5G upgrades.

Home broadband offers another runway

Jio has built a significant lead in home services, with around 27 million connected homes, nearly twice Bharti’s base, along with 62% of industry net additions in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and 79% of the fixed-wireless access market.

The opportunity remains underpenetrated. Only 21% of Indian households have fixed broadband, compared with more than 70% globally. Dolat expects the home broadband segment to grow at a 22% compound annual rate between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2031.

The number of broadband households could rise from around 64 million in fiscal 2026 to 150 million by fiscal 2031, with Jio positioned to benefit from its product portfolio, pricing and existing infrastructure.

Enterprise and cloud could change the mix

Dolat also sees a large opportunity in enterprise digital services. India’s enterprise digital-services market stood at Rs 5.1 lakh crore in FY26 and is expected to grow at 18% annually through FY31.

Adoption among India’s 79 million micro, small and medium enterprises remains below 3%, compared with 75%-90% among large companies. JPL’s in-house technology capabilities could help it expand in enterprise connectivity, cloud and other digital services.

The brokerage also points to Jio Cloud, personal-computing products and international partnerships as additional growth drivers. JPL has developed much of its technology stack internally, including its 5G core, JioBharat phone and AirFiber platform.

However, Dolat has assigned no value to the company’s overseas technology ambitions until there is clearer evidence of commercialisation and the economics of selling its technology stack abroad.

Peak capex may be behind Jio

JPL has 360,000 towers, more than one million route-kilometres of fibre and 5G spectrum across all 22 circles. Around 53% of its customers are already on 5G, while the network is described as 6G-ready.

Capital expenditure declined from 49% of revenue in fiscal 2024 to 23% in fiscal 2026. With the investment cycle moderating, Dolat expects free cash flow to rise from ₹22,000 crore in fiscal 2026 to around ₹44,400 crore in fiscal 2028 and ₹56,400 crore in fiscal 2029.

Lower interest costs following the IPO, along with stronger organic cash generation, could further support free cash flow.

JPL trades at about 13.4 times estimated fiscal 2028 EV/EBITDA and 11.3 times estimated fiscal 2029 EV/EBITDA, slightly above Bharti Airtel’s India business excluding towers at 11.5 times and 10.5 times, respectively.

Global telecom companies trade at around five times EV/EBITDA, but Dolat believes Jio’s faster growth justifies a premium. It expects JPL’s revenue and EBITDA to grow at 13% and 15% annually through fiscal 2029, compared with 4% and 5% growth for global peers.

The brokerage’s key risks are a delay in tariff hikes and potential stock supply from pre-IPO investors.

(Disclaimer: This article has been written by Nikhil Agarwal, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Nikhil Agarwal and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here)