Jefferies cuts HDFC Bank share price target but retains Buy after CEO opts out of new term. Here’s why

Wall Street major Jefferies has slashed the target price of HDFC Bank shares to Rs 880 from Rs 1,050 per share, forecasting a fresh upside of 22% from current levels after the lender announced that its CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan won't seek extension beyond his term that ends on October 26.

“We will watch out if this leads to an exit among senior leaders of the bank. This can impact business and performance in the near term,” analysts at the firm said.

The brokerage said its conversations with investors suggest they are comfortable with a leadership change, but believe the appointment of former leaders from PSU banks should be avoided as it could complicate the transition.


Also read: HDFC Bank shares after Jagdishan: What lies ahead for the country’s largest private lender?

Who can become new HDFC Bank CEO?

Jefferies sees Kaizad Bharucha, HDFC Bank's Deputy Managing Director who leads corporate, business banking and retail assets, among others, as a key internal candidate for the CEO role.

The brokerage said Bharucha could be a simpler choice, with a potential tenure of 2.8-3 years, given that he was appointed Executive Director in June 2014. It believes one option for the bank could be to allow Bharucha to lead HDFC Bank while preparing for a smoother transition over the longer term.

Jefferies identified Anup Bagchi, currently CEO of ICICI Prudential Life and formerly an Executive Director at ICICI Bank overseeing retail banking; Paresh Sukthankar, former DMD at HDFC Bank who left in 2018; Vibha Padalkar, CEO of HDFC Life; Rajiv Sabharwal, CEO of Tata Capital; and Amitabh Chaudhry, CEO of Axis Bank, as potential external candidates.

Jefferies on HDFC Bank outlook

The brokerage has lowered its FY27-29 earnings estimates by 3% each. It does not see a risk to asset quality, noting that the bank has maintained high asset quality and that the book value of its exposure to the Essel group was nil at the time of the merger, with the claim including principal and interest.

Analysts say the uncertainty could raise the cost of equity and lead to a lower valuation, prompting it to base the revised target on 1.6x September 2028 adjusted price-to-book value. However, with HDFC Bank trading at 1.5x one-year forward price-to-book and 12x PE, the brokerage believes valuations are not as demanding.

The bank said in an exchange filing over the weekend that its board had tried to persuade Jagdishan to continue, but he remained firm on his decision not to seek re-appointment. HDFC Bank's board has now decided to accelerate the process of identifying his successor, well within the timeframe stipulated by the regulator.

Read more: HDFC Bank shares gain 3% as CEO Jagdishan rejects new term; Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, others weigh in

Among the names being considered internally is current Deputy Managing Director Kaizad Bharucha, who has been with HDFC Bank's board since 2014 and became Deputy MD in April 2023. However, the 15-year cap set by the Reserve Bank of India on the tenure of a Whole-Time Director at a private bank presents a limitation. Bharucha's current term on the board runs until 2029.

HDFC Bank stock performance

The stock has remained under pressure this year. HDFC Bank shares have fallen 27.33% on a year-to-date basis and are down 24.80% over the past one year, according to NSE data. Over five years, the stock has declined nearly 6.97%.

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