Jefferies' Chris Wood sells Birla stock after 183% rally to buy Mahindra

Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, has exited his long-held position in Aditya Birla Real Estate after a 183% gain since July 2021, shifting funds into Mahindra & Mahindra on optimism over the automaker’s earnings growth and rising market share.

In his latest GREED & fear newsletter dated August 28, Wood wrote, “The investment in Aditya Birla Real Estate will be removed and replaced by an investment in Mahindra & Mahindra.” Wood noted that the stock had rallied sharply since its inception in July 2021, when it was held under its earlier name, Century Textiles.

Jefferies’ bullish case on Mahindra

Jefferies has a buy rating on Mahindra & Mahindra with a target price of Rs 4,200, implying meaningful upside from current levels. Analyst Nitij Mangal, in a Jefferies report, said Mahindra is well placed to deliver a 19% EPS CAGR over FY25-28E, second only to TVS Motor’s 27%.

“Mahindra & Mahindra is gaining share in PVs with new launches and favourable demand shift towards SUVs, and has become the #2 OEM in 1QFY26 with 15% market share,” the brokerage said. Maruti Suzuki’s share has slipped to 39%, a 13-year low, while Hyundai has dropped to third place with 13% share, its weakest since FY09.

Jefferies finds Mahindra’s valuations “attractive” given the strong earnings outlook and improving franchise, projecting 12% volume growth and 19% core EPS CAGR over FY25-28E.

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The brokerage values Mahindra at 26x Sep-FY27 earnings for its autos and tractor businesses, adding Rs 487 per share for subsidiaries. Risks, however, include weaker tractor and SUV demand, muted response to new SUV/EV launches, and the challenge of meeting 2027 CAFE emission norms while sustaining profitability.

On Friday, Mahindra & Mahindra shares traded nearly 2% lower at Rs 3,232.60 on the BSE. Shares of Aditya Birla Real Estate also slipped 2.7% to Rs 1,796.95.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)