India can reach a $5.1 trillion economy by FY29 as growth strengthens: Omniscience Capital

India’s nominal GDP growth in US dollar terms could reach 8% in the base case and 9% in an optimistic scenario, according to OmniScience Capital.

India could become a $5.1 trillion economy by FY29 as stronger real growth, healthier bank balance sheets and a revival in corporate capital expenditure support the country’s expansion, according to an analysis by OmniScience Capital

The $5 trillion ambition, first outlined in FY19, was delayed by the pandemic, stressed bank and corporate balance sheets, and sharp rupee depreciation. However, the underlying growth trajectory remains intact, the report said.

Why the $5 trillion target was delayed

Covid-19 shock

India’s real GDP contracted by 4.15% in FY21. The contraction, followed by the uneven recovery, created a “sequence of returns” effect that weakened the country’s dollar-denominated growth.

Twin balance-sheet problem

Stressed bank and corporate balance sheets constrained lending, investment and capital expenditure for several years. This limited the economy’s ability to sustain the growth rate needed to meet the original target.

Rupee depreciation

A 12.3% fall in the rupee against the US dollar in FY26 further reduced India’s GDP growth when measured in dollar terms, even as domestic economic activity remained relatively strong.

GDP trajectory

When the $5 trillion target was announced, India’s GDP stood at $2.7 trillion. Reaching the target by FY25 required annual nominal GDP growth of 10.2% in US dollar terms.

Actual GDP reached $3.8 trillion in FY25, implying a nominal dollar CAGR of 5.7% from FY19. It rose to $4.1 trillion in FY26, taking the CAGR to 5.4%.

Despite the delay, real GDP growth averaged 7.4% between FY22 and FY26, compared with 6.2% during the previous two decades.

Outlook

In its base case, OmniScience Capital assumes 6.5% real GDP growth, 4% inflation and annual rupee depreciation of 2.5%. These conditions would produce nominal GDP growth of about 8% in US dollar terms, taking India to $5.1 trillion by FY29, $5.4 trillion by FY30 and $8 trillion by FY35.

Under its optimistic scenario, real GDP growth rises to 7%, inflation remains at 4% and annual rupee depreciation slows to 2%. India’s GDP could then reach $5.9 trillion by FY29.

The report also expects stronger trade and increased dollar inflows to support the rupee. If nominal dollar GDP growth reaches 11% thereafter, India could become an $11 trillion economy by FY35.

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