IDFC First Bank Q4 preview: PAT may plunge up to 84% on fraud impact; NII seen growing up to 19%; 8 things to watch

IDFC First Bank is expected to report a muted Q4FY26 performance, with profitability likely to remain under pressure due to the impact of a recent deposit fraud, even as core operating metrics stay resilient on the back of healthy loan growth and stable margins. Deposit traction and asset quality will remain key areas to watch.

Estimates from Nomura, Nuvama Institutional Equities and Motilal Oswal predict the lender's net profit to decline by 47%-84% on a year-on-year basis, while ICICI Securities takes a divergent view, expecting IDFC First to report profit after tax (PAT) growth of 34% YoY. It could report a bottom line between Rs 50 crore and Rs 407 crore, the estimates revealed.

Net interest income (NII) is also pegged in a range of 14%-19%, at Rs 5,610 crore to Rs 5,830 crore.


The private lender will announce its January-March quarter earnings on Saturday, April 25.

Here’s what brokerages expect IDFC First to deliver on eight key metrics:

1. PAT

• Nomura estimates PAT at Rs 50 crore, down 84% YoY and 90% QoQ, citing the impact of the deposit fraud.
  
• Nuvama expects PAT at Rs 200 crore, down 36% YoY and 61% QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities pegs PAT at Rs 407 crore, up 34% YoY but down 19.1% QoQ.
  
• Motilal Oswal estimates PAT at Rs 160 crore, down 47% YoY and 68% QoQ.
  

2. NII

• NII growth remains steady, supported by loan expansion.

• Nomura estimates NII at Rs 5,610 crore, up 14% YoY and 2% QoQ.
  
• Nuvama sees NII at Rs 5,830 crore, up 19% YoY and 6% QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities pegs NII at Rs 5,738 crore, up 17% YoY and 4.5% QoQ.
  
• Motilal Oswal expects NII at Rs 5,829 crore, up 19% YoY and 6% QoQ.
  

3. Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP)

• Nomura estimates PPoP at Rs 2,060 crore, up 14% YoY and 1% QoQ.
  
• Nuvama expects PPoP at Rs 2,280 crore, up 26% YoY and 12% QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities pegs PPoP at Rs 2,261 crore, up 25% YoY and 11.2% QoQ.
  

4. Net Interest Margins (NIMs)

• Nomura estimates NIM at 5.9%, down 12 bps YoY and 1 bp QoQ.
  
• Nuvama expects NIM at 5.81%, down 14 bps YoY but up 5 bps QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities pegs NIM at 5.82%, down 13 bps YoY and up 6 bps QoQ.
  
• Motilal Oswal expects NIM expansion of ~8 bps QoQ.
  

5. Loans & deposits

• Nomura estimates loans at Rs 2.79 lakh crore (20% YoY, 4% QoQ) and deposits at Rs 2.95 lakh crore (17% YoY, 1% QoQ), noting muted deposit growth.
  
• Nuvama sees loans at Rs 2.90 lakh crore (22% YoY, 5.3% QoQ) and deposits at Rs 2.84 lakh crore (13% YoY, 2.3% QoQ decline).
  
• ICICI Securities pegs loans at Rs 2.79 lakh crore, up 20% YoY and 3.5% QoQ.
  
• Motilal Oswal expects steady credit growth (3.4% QoQ) and largely flat deposit growth (~0.5% QoQ).
  

6. Asset quality

• Nomura estimates provisions at Rs 1,210 crore, down 16% YoY and 13% QoQ.
  
• Nuvama expects slippages at Rs 2,070 crore, down 4.8% YoY and 1% QoQ.
  
• ICICI Securities pegs slippages at Rs 1,974 crore, down 9.3% YoY and 5.7% QoQ.
  
• Motilal Oswal expects provisions to remain elevated due to the Haryana branch fraud.
  

7. Credit cost

• Nomura estimates credit cost at 1.8%, down 76 bps YoY and 36 bps QoQ.
  
• Nuvama expects credit cost at 1.90%, down 54 bps YoY and 13 bps QoQ.
  

8. Key monitorables

• Impact and resolution of the deposit fraud incident
  
• Deposit growth trajectory and funding costs
  
• NIM sustainability amid cost pressures
  

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)