ICICI Lombard shares in focus as Q3 PAT declines 9% to Rs 659 crore. What should investors do?

Shares of ICICI Lombard General Insurance could see action heading into trade on Wednesday, January 14, after the company reported a 9% decline in net profit in the third quarter of financial year 2026.

The company’s net profit came in at Rs 659 crore for the December quarter, weighed down by higher claims and a deterioration in underwriting performance. Profit had stood at ₹724 crore in the year-ago period

Gross direct premium income rose 13.3% to Rs 7,041 crore in Q3 FY26 from Rs 6,214 crore a year earlier, outpacing industry growth of 11.5%.


Gross direct premium income rose 13.3% to Rs 7,041 crore in Q3 FY26 from Rs 6,214 crore a year earlier, outpacing industry growth of 11.5%.

However, the combined ratio worsened to 104.5% from 102.7% in Q3 FY25, due to pressure in motor and health lines. Return on average equity declined to 16.5% from 21.5% a year ago. The combined ratio, a key profitability metric in insurance, measures the ratio of claims/expenses to the premiums earned in the period under review.

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Should you buy, sell or hold?

Goldman Sachs has maintained a Neutral rating on ICICI Lombard while cutting its target price to Rs 1,925 per share, an upside of just 2% from current levels. The brokerage highlighted that Q3 GDPI growth of around 13% YoY was ahead of industry trends, led by strong momentum in the fire and health segments. However, profitability came under pressure as the combined ratio rose to 104.5%. Goldman has tweaked its FY26–FY28 EPS estimates in the range of -6% to +1%, factoring in labour code changes and revisions to the outlook. The stock currently trades at about 30x FY27 P/E, close to its five-year average, with earnings CAGR expected to remain in high single digits over FY25–FY28.

Morgan Stanley has retained an Equal-weight rating on ICICI Lombard with a target price of Rs 2,035, an 8% upside. The brokerage noted that Q3 PAT missed both its own and Street estimates, primarily due to a higher combined ratio that weighed on profitability. Adjusted PAT, excluding one-offs, declined 3% YoY and 15% QoQ, while competitive thinking remains intense in the motor segment. Morgan Stanley expects GST rate cuts to support motor and health insurance growth in Q4 and sees around 13% GDPI growth in Q4 as well as FY27–FY28. While PAT forecasts have been cut, the target price remains unchanged as the valuation has been rolled forward to March 2027.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)