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InCred flags limited GST gains for Hyundai as stock stays 50% higher in 6 months.
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Hyundai Motor India shares fall 3% on muted domestic sales in September

InCred Equities expects Hyundai Motor India to see limited benefits from the GST rate cut, given its heavy reliance on SUVs, exports, and spares. The brokerage raised FY26F–28F sales estimates by just 3%, versus higher industry upgrades, citing we...

ETMarkets.com
InCred flags limited GST gains for Hyundai as stock stays 50% higher in 6 months.
Shares of Hyundai Motor India slipped as much as 3% to their day’s low of Rs 2,507 on Wednesday, October 1, after the company reported only a marginal uptick in domestic sales for September. The development is notable as it comes shortly after the government slashed GST to make cars more affordable.

Domestic sales stood at 51,547 units in September 2025, up just 1% from 51,101 units in the same month last year. Exports, however, showed strong momentum, rising 43.5% year-on-year with nearly 19,000 vehicles shipped.

“SUV contribution of over 37,000 units in domestic sales reached the highest-ever penetration in the company’s history at 72.4%,” Hyundai said in an exchange filing on October 1. The company added that Hyundai Venue achieved its highest monthly sales in 20 months at 11,484 units.


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In a recent report on Hyundai Motor India, InCred Equities said the government’s recent GST tweak will have a limited impact on sales revenue growth. “With high revenue dependence on large SUVs, exports, and parts and spares (70%), we believe the benefit from a GST cut-led demand revival will be limited,” said Pramod Amthe of InCred Equities.

The brokerage highlighted that high-teen growth in exports (15% of net sales), parts and services (15%), and large SUVs (40%) over the past three years has reduced Hyundai’s dependence on products taxed at the new 18% GST rate to just 30% of FY25 net sales. Since demand sensitivity is higher in low-priced compact cars, Hyundai’s sales benefit is expected to lag peers like Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors. This, InCred noted, will prolong Hyundai’s underperformance in domestic volume growth. The firm raised Hyundai’s FY26F–28F net sales forecast by just 3%, while upgrading industry volume growth by 300–700 bps.
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On valuations, InCred added that the GST cut improves affordability mainly for compact cars, meaning volume growth will take precedence over value growth in the near term — an area where Hyundai’s participation is limited. The brokerage also flagged that Hyundai’s sharp share price rally has pushed its forward P/E valuation to 26% above Maruti Suzuki’s. “Market share pressure will be a key monitorable, while new product launches remain the main upside risk,” it said.

In Q1, Hyundai reported an 8% year-on-year (YoY) decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 1,369.23 crore, compared to Rs 1,489.65 crore in the year-ago period. Revenue slipped 5.5% YoY to Rs 16,179.61 crore from Rs 17,131.24 crore.

At around 1:25 pm, shares of Hyundai Motor India were trading at Rs 2,537, down 1.8% on the NSE. The stock, however, has surged nearly 50% in the last six months.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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ETMarkets.com
InCred flags limited GST gains for Hyundai as stock stays 50% higher in 6 months.
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ETMarkets.com
InCred flags limited GST gains for Hyundai as stock stays 50% higher in 6 months.
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