Here's what to watch at the G-20 finance meetings this weekend
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Trade-War Drama
It’s not just China in President Donald Trump’s tariff crosshairs. Tariffs on Mexico are set to take effect next week unless a dramatic last-moment agreement is reached. And then there’s the prospect of levies on imported cars, which would hammer Japanese, Korean and European automakers. So watch out for plenty of commentary around protectionism.
Finance chiefs will bemoan the spillovers from the trade war into the global economy, but some will hold back from directly criticizing Trump’s tariffs given the heavy presence of the US in G-20 discussions. Japanese officials have said a statement against protectionism probably won’t make it into the communique, according to a local newspaper report.
Finance chiefs will bemoan the spillovers from the trade war into the global economy, but some will hold back from directly criticizing Trump’s tariffs given the heavy presence of the US in G-20 discussions. Japanese officials have said a statement against protectionism probably won’t make it into the communique, according to a local newspaper report.
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Dos and Don’ts
Be on the lookout for officials to frame trade policy recommendations around dos and don’ts. Among the “don’ts”: statements to ensure no economy manipulates its currency, particularly on the heels of a heated US Treasury report that cast a wider net for its manipulator watch list.
The Trump administration has blamed a strong dollar for hurting US exports and comments from the White House challenge the G-20’s typical preference for not directing exchange rates verbally or otherwise.
On the "dos," Asian officials are likely to tout the multilateral and regional pacts enacted, or in progress, as a sign that global trade plods on amid headwinds.
The Trump administration has blamed a strong dollar for hurting US exports and comments from the White House challenge the G-20’s typical preference for not directing exchange rates verbally or otherwise.
On the "dos," Asian officials are likely to tout the multilateral and regional pacts enacted, or in progress, as a sign that global trade plods on amid headwinds.
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Fed and Friends
>> While central banks lack the firepower they once possessed, the world is again looking to them to solve economic troubles. Australia recently cut interest rates for the first time in three years, and expectations are growing for the Federal Reserve to slash rates this year.
>> Financial innovation also remains a high-priority agenda. Asian economies that have taken the lead on financial technology will have a chance to share their experiences.
>> Also look for central bankers to exchange ideas on persistently low inflation, and how to better measure the labor market amid the emergence of the gig economy.
>> Financial innovation also remains a high-priority agenda. Asian economies that have taken the lead on financial technology will have a chance to share their experiences.
>> Also look for central bankers to exchange ideas on persistently low inflation, and how to better measure the labor market amid the emergence of the gig economy.
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4/6
Digital Challenges
The rise of the digital economy has raised questions on how to appropriately charge for cross-border transactions, including on Internet giants. International taxation issues will take center stage at the kickoff symposium on Saturday. The G-20 countries are aiming to find agreement on imposing taxes based on where the firm does business rather than on the firm’s location, Japan’s Nikkei Asian Review reported last month.
Furthermore, the Financial Stability Board, an international outfit to tackle challenges around regulation and supervision of the sector, is working to set up guidelines on cyber attacks and recently delivered a progress report to G-20 attendees.
Furthermore, the Financial Stability Board, an international outfit to tackle challenges around regulation and supervision of the sector, is working to set up guidelines on cyber attacks and recently delivered a progress report to G-20 attendees.
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Italy Debt
With Italy as a G-20 member, the country’s finance chiefs may have a say on the European Commission’s recent warning that Italy hasn’t made sufficient progress in reducing its debt and that a disciplinary process is “warranted.” While any penalties would be relatively small, an official reprimand from the bloc could still spell trouble for Italy, which is already roiled by financial markets and plagued by internal tensions.
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Who are the key participants
The main players will hail from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, and the European Union. Others will also attend, including officials from constituencies such as Singapore, Switzerland, as well as from multilateral organizations like the International Monetary Fund.