HDFC Bank shares crash 5%, wipe off Rs 70,000 cr from investor wealth. Why Jefferies, Nomura, others see up to 28% upside?

Shares of HDFC Bank fell more than 5% on Monday after the private lender's Q1 earnings failed to impress investors, wiping out nearly Rs 70,000 crore in market value, even as brokerages remained bullish on the stock.

HDFC Bank fell to an intraday low of Rs 774.55 apiece on the NSE, with its market capitalisation falling to less than Rs 11.93 lakh crore. This came after India’s private lender on Saturday reported a 5% year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit to Rs 19,060 crore for the April-June quarter of the ongoing financial year 2027.

The bank’s net interest income, which is the difference between interest earned and interest expenses, rose 7% YoY to Rs 33,534 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 31,438 crore in Q1 FY26. HDFC Bank’s gross non-performing assets (NPA) fell more than 3% YoY to Rs 35,846 crore, but net NPA increased slightly to Rs 12,357 crore during the quarter under review.

Jefferies on HDFC Bank share price

Jefferies maintained its ‘Buy’ call on the shares of HDFC Bank with a target price of Rs 1,050 apiece. This implies an upside potential of more than 28% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 819.6 apiece.


HDFC Bank remains one of the international brokerage’s top picks, while it noted that the company’s June quarter earnings were in-line with estimates, as slight miss on NII was offset by lower opex and credit cost. The bank's desire to participate in corp lending lifted loan growth to 16% YoY, but dragged NIMs by 12 bps QoQ, limiting NII growth to 7%, Nomura said, adding that slower growth in opex (slow branch/staff growth) and lower credit costs (low slippages) aided profits.

“We tweak earnings estimates for FY27 and FY29. Improvement in margins should aid earnings that should grow at 15% CAGR in PBT (ex-treasury/ one-offs) over FY26-29 with ROE of 13% in FY27. Valuations at 1.8x FY27 adjusted PB and 14x PE are attractive,” Jefferies further said.

Nomura on HDFC Bank share price

Nomura also has a ‘Buy’ call on the shares of HDFC Bank, with a target price of Rs 950 apiece, implying nearly 16% upside potential. The international brokerage noted that the bank reported a largely in-line Q1 FY27 performance.

“We raise our FY27F loan/deposit growth estimates to 16%/17% (from 13%/15%). FY27-28F EPS estimates are largely unchanged, as lower top-line is offset by lower provisions and opex. On the FCNR(B) scheme, management expects to gain a handsome market share, though it did not disclose any quantum. Leadership continuity and FCNR execution remain key near-term monitorables, in our view,” it added.

Also read | HDFC Bank shares fall 5% after Q1 results. Should you buy, sell or hold the stock?

Anand Rathi on HDFC Bank

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers has a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares of HDFC Bank and a target price of Rs 963 apiece, implying an upside potential of more than 17% from the stock’s previous closing price.

The domestic brokerage noted that despite some pick-up in loan growth to 15.5% YoY, HDFC Bank’s credit growth remained well below peers such as ICICI Bank and Axis Bank. “HDFC Bank has been unable to close the post-merger gap with ICICI across key operating metrics, including NIM, loan growth and CASA ratio. Given that CASA growth continues to lag loan growth, we believe it will take longer for the bank to narrow the funding cost gap with ICICI. Consequently, we do not expect loan growth or RoE to sustainably exceed 14% over the medium term. In addition, we see some uncertainty around the RBI extending the tenure of the current CEO, given the recent developments at the bank,” it said.

Nevertheless, Anand Rathi maintained its ‘BUY’ rating, supported by reasonable valuations and favourable sector tailwinds. Among large-cap private banks, it continues to prefer Axis Bank and ICICI Bank.

Motilal Oswal on HDFC Bank share price

Motilal Oswal also reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on HDFC Bank shares, with a target price of Rs 2,050, implying an upside of around 28%. The domestic brokerage said that the private lender reported a largely in-line quarter, supported by healthy business growth and lower provisions, although net interest margin (NIM) remained the key disappointment, contracting 12 basis points QoQ to 3.26%. Loan growth was led by the SME and corporate segments, while retail lending remained relatively subdued.

JM Financial on HDFC Bank share price

JM Financial has maintained its Add rating on HDFC Bank with a revised target price of Rs 900, implying an upside of around 10%. While the domestic brokerage said the bank's liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) of 115% and a credit-deposit ratio of around 96% limit its ability to accelerate loan growth, it remains constructive on the bank's medium-term margin outlook, expecting NIM to improve as high-cost borrowings gradually run off.

Also read | HDFC Bank Q1 Results: Net profit rises 5% YoY to Rs 19,060 crore, NII up 7%

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