Gurmeet Chadha sees Indian bond yields aligning with developed economies, reveals 5-year portfolio strategy

Emphasising a structurally positive view on India’s economic trajectory and financial markets, wealth management expert and Complete Circle Consultants’ Managing Partner and CIO, Gurmeet Chadha, has shared his long-term market outlook and asset allocation strategy.

In a post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Chadha highlighted the ongoing shift in global and domestic financial trends, underpinned by falling borrowing costs and rising foreign interest in Indian debt and equities.

Chadha drew attention to the global debt figure, pegged at $340 trillion, now accounting for 270% of world GDP. Against this backdrop, he expressed confidence in India’s fiscal position, stating that Indian government bond yields, currently around 6.6%, are likely to fall to below 5% over the next 2–3 years.


He attributed this projected decline to India’s fiscal responsibility and said this could bring Indian yields in line with those of developed economies.


He further noted that foreign institutional investors, including Japanese and Middle Eastern banks, appear to have already identified the trend, resulting in a massive foreign direct investment (FDI) infusion of $10.5 billion into Indian financial institutions such as RBL Bank, Yes Bank, Federal Bank, and Shriram Finance.

Chadha linked lower borrowing rates and reduced cost of capital to positive correlations with economic growth, capital expenditure (capex), and consumption—key levers of a growing economy.

While he did not provide projections for GDP or market returns, his post reflected a belief in India’s long-term macroeconomic stability and attractiveness to investors.

In terms of asset allocation, Chadha revealed his portfolio strategy for the next five years, which includes:

• Long-term government bonds: 10–15%
  
• Gold and precious metals: 10%
  
• Equities: 70–75%
  

His concluding note, “Long India,” encapsulated his overall sentiment towards India’s economic and investment potential in the coming years.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)