Goldman sees 20% downside for Tata Motors

MUMBAI: Goldman Sachs sees 20 per cent downside in Tata Motors' shares as it believes its 70% share price rise this year has overshot fundamentals. The brokerage has retained a sell call with a target price of Rs 241, revised up from Rs 175.

Tata Motors' market share targets are optimistic given that despite new launches the company has lost market share in the key SUV sub-segments over the last few years owing to rising competition, said Goldman Sachs.

The company had highlighted its plans to gain market share in the premium car markets during the Jaguar Land Rover investor day. In the premium SUV segments, JLR aims to gain 6-8 percentage point market share by FY26 over its FY21 share of 12% for Range Rover and 7% for Velar.


"This market share gain aspiration underscores the £30bn FY26 revenue guidance and double digit EBIT margins," said Goldman Sachs.

The brokerage also sees competition intensity increasing significantly with multiple launches from premim peers and new entrants while JLR lags on launches.

Goldman Sachs said the share price of Tata Motors is more than pricing in positives such as sustained improvement in profitability or cash flows in India and JLR as well as greater contribution from commercial vehicles.