Sensex, Nifty to open in green tomorrow? GIFT Nifty rises over 100 points on Trump’s reported plans to end Iran war

After days of incessant selloff, Sensex and Nifty are expected to see some relief when markets open tomorrow, as suggested by the marginal rise in GIFT Nifty on Tuesday after a report said that US President Donald Trump is willing to end the war with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

GIFT Nifty gained over 100 points as seen at around late on Tuesday. Indian stock markets will remain closed today on account of Shri Mahavir Jayanti, as BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) observe the first out of the two market holidays scheduled for this week.

Brent drops to $111/barrel

Oil futures declined more than 1% on Tuesday, further supporting expectations of a gap-up opening for Indian stock markets tomorrow. Brent crude futures fell to $111 per barrel, a day after reaching their highest levels since March 19. WTI Crude meanwhile dropped to $102 per barrel today.

Bond yields decline

Bond yields meanwhile declined. The benchmark US 10-year yield dropped for the first time in three days, falling 9.6 basis points at 4.344%, on track for its largest daily fall since early August. For the month, however, 10-year yields have advanced 38 bps, their largest monthly rise ‌since December 2024. US two-year yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, were down 8.8 bps at 3.828%. As bond yields rise, they make government bonds more attractive than stocks, creating downside potential for markets.

The fall in US bond yields comes as bond prices rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday longer-run inflation expectations appear to be "well-anchored" despite soaring oil prices. This led to investor expectations that the Fed is likely to be in no rush to cut or hike interest rates.

GIFT Nifty gained more than 240 points to trade at 22,672, as seen at around 7.20 am on Tuesday. Indian stock markets will remain closed today on account of Shri Mahavir Jayanti, as BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) observe the first out of the two market holidays scheduled for this week.

Global markets

GIFT Nifty has pared significant losses, after rising more than 240 points earlier during the day. Asian markets also lost steam, with South Korea’s Kospi dropping over 3% and China’s Taiwan Weighted falling over 2%. Japan’s Nikkei, meanwhile, fell nearly 1% on Tuesday.


European markets had closed yesterday’s session in the deep green, with the UK's FTSE gaining around 1.6%. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC gained around 1% each.


Wall Street ended mostly in the red on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.11%, S&P 500 fell 0.39% to 6,344 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.73% to 20,795

Monday's bloodbath on Dalal Street

The expectations of a relief rally on Dalal Street tomorrow comes after a sharp crash yesterday, with Sensex and Nifty declining more than 2% each and wiping off more than Rs 9 lakh crore from the total market capitalisation of all companies listed on BSE, dragging it down to Rs 413 lakh crore.

Despite expectations of some relief, caution is warranted. Foreign investors remained net sellers of Indian equities for the whopping 21st consecutive session on Monday, net selling Indian shares worth Rs 11,163 crore. While this does not reflect future activity, sustained outflows in recent sessions have weighed on investor sentiment.

“The March 2026 FII sell-off represents a critical phase for Indian equity markets, characterized by external shocks and heightened global uncertainty. While domestic investors have provided some resilience, the sustained withdrawal of foreign capital, combined with adverse macroeconomic conditions, continues to weigh heavily on market performance,” said Pabitro Mukherjee, Associate Vice President – Technical Research, Bajaj Broking.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research of Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, also said massive foreign outflows exceeding Rs 1 lakh crore in March so far underscores sustained global risk aversion and pressure on domestic equities

Additionally, the rupee breached the historic $95 mark against the US dollar for the first time ever yesterday. This came even after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday directed banks to ‌cap their net ⁠open rupee positions in the foreign ⁠exchange market at $100 million by the end of each business day, in an attempt to provide a safety net to the free falling Indian currency.

“Going ahead, markets are likely to remain fragile, with crude prices, currency trends and foreign flows driving near-term direction with volatility expected to stay elevated amid an uncertain backdrop. With markets shut [today] for Mahavir Jayanti, the next session will reflect interim global developments,” Khemka said.

(With inputs from agencies)

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