GIFT Nifty jumps 200 pts amid renewed hopes for Iran-US peace talks. What to expect?

While Sensex and Nifty plunged on Monday, Dalal Street may see some relief rally on Wednesday when markets open, with GIFT Nifty surging nearly 200 points after reports claimed that US continues to engage with Iran to make a peace deal even as it blocked the latter’s ports after the collapse of ceasefire talks over the weekend.

Iran and US have left the door open to dialogue, and a US official said there was forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, as per a report by Reuters. US President Donald Trump meanwhile said that his administration received a call from Iran who is now eager to negotiate after the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said that "they'd like to make a deal very badly." He reiterated that the primary sticking point in the negotiations remains Iran’s nuclear ambitions, asserting that "Iran will not have a nuclear weapon”.

Oil prices slip below $100/barrel

As a result, Brent crude futures declined nearly 2% to trade at $97.5 per barrel, while WTI Crude futures dropped more than 2% to $97 per barrel on Tuesday morning. The cooling oil prices and rising hopes for peace talks boosted global markets.

Global markets rally

Wall Street rallied on Monday. S&P 500 erased all the losses it racked up since the war started. The blue chip index gained over 1%, to end at 6,886.24, higher than its February 27 finish. Nasdaq Composite also gained more than 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.63%.

Japan's Nikkei rallied 2.5% to a six-week high. South Korea’s Kospi meanwhile gained more than 3%, while China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained nearly 0.6% each.

Back on Dalal Street

Stock markets are closed in India on Tuesday on account of Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti. NSE and BSE will remain shut for trading. The country’s largest non-agricultural commodity exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) will be closed in the morning session but will resume trading in the evening session between 5 pm and 11:30 pm.

Meanwhile, the largest agricultural bourse the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) will also be closed in both sessions. Trading will resume on Wednesday, April 15.

After crashing more than 2% in the morning session, Sensex and Nifty recovered some losses and closed less than 1% lower on Monday as a spike in oil prices and fading hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

GIFT Nifty today meanwhile surged more than 192 points (0.80%) to 24,069.50, as seen at 9.10 am.

What lies ahead?

Markets continue to derive limited support from last week’s ceasefire framework, which remains intact for now and is encouraging selective buying interest along with a buy-on-dips approach, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research of Geojit Investments.

“On the domestic front, the Q4 earnings season is now underway, leading to stock-specific activity, although overall risk appetite remains cautious amid global uncertainty. While the immediate impact on Q4 earnings is expected to be manageable, prolonged Middle East tensions could have more meaningful implications for Q1FY27. Volatility is likely to remain elevated, with markets closely tracking geopolitical developments alongside earnings quality and management commentary,” he said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)