Fed traders steer toward a 75-basis-point September rate hike

Traders pushed the market-implied odds of another three-quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase in September -- instead of a smaller half-point move -- to the highest level since the central bank’s last meeting Wednesday.

The peak was reached shortly after a Wall Street Journal article suggested the larger move appeared likely. While it was only briefly sustained, the rate of the swap contract referencing the Fed’s September meeting remains about two basis points higher on the day at the highest level since Aug. 5, when strong July employment data pushed it to its previous high.

The 3.022% rate prices in 69 basis points over the current 2.33% Fed effective rate.


Forecasting the Fed’s next move is complicated by the scheduled release of the August consumer price index on Sept. 13, during the Fed’s self-imposed quiet period ahead of its Sept. 20-21 meeting. Last month, cooler-than-forecast July CPI data reversed the impact of the strong employment report.

The Fed has raised rates four times since March, by 75-basis-point increments at each of its last two meetings.