ET Alpha Wealth Summit: A 12% return is a really good job in markets, says HSBC MF CEO Kailash Kulkarni

Investors should temper expectations and recognise that generating a 12% annual return in the stock market is already a significant achievement, according to Kailash Kulkarni, who believes India's next major economic opportunity could come from export-led manufacturing, among other themes.

Speaking at the ET Alpha Wealth Summit during a discussion on the impact of AI on India over the next decade, Kulkarni said investors often underestimate the power of steady compounding while chasing unrealistic return expectations.

"Getting a 12% return is a damn good job in the stock market," he said.


His comments come at a time when investors are increasingly debating the implications of artificial intelligence on jobs, businesses and investment opportunities, especially after AI-linked stocks have driven market rallies across the world.

Kulkarni argued that while India may not emerge as the biggest winner in the global AI race, the country has several other opportunities that could create substantial economic value over the coming decade.

"Where is the next big gold rush? Exports through manufacturing are one such area," he said. According to Kulkarni, India's growing network of free trade agreements and its position in global supply chains could help domestic manufacturers gain market share as companies diversify production beyond traditional manufacturing hubs.



India currently has around 10-11 free trade agreements either operational or under various stages of implementation, providing greater access to overseas markets for domestic producers.

He said the key requirement for both individuals and businesses would be adaptability. "People need to be agile and be willing to relearn," Kulkarni said, noting that technological disruptions have historically rewarded those who continuously upgrade their skills rather than resist change.

For retail investors, however, he does not see artificial intelligence as a major threat.

Kulkarni said individual investors generally approach markets differently from institutional investors and algorithmic trading systems. Their focus is typically on building wealth steadily, avoiding large drawdowns and achieving long-term financial goals rather than seeking short-term trading advantages.

Also read: ET Alpha Wealth Summit: India outperformed emerging markets over a 10-15 year period; market lag is recency bias: Vikas Khemani

Instead, he believes AI could benefit retail investors by improving access to information and helping them make more informed decisions. "What they need is more access to useful information. If AI can help provide that, it will be beneficial," he said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)