Emkay Global initiates coverage on Adani Green, projects 43% upside potential

Stating that Adani Green Energy’s (AGEL) RE capacity would see >30% CAGR during FY24-30, domestic brokerage firm Emkay Global initiated coverage on the stock with a buy rating and a target price of Rs 2,550.

“AGEL’s RE capacity would see >30% CAGR during FY24-30E, while the improving CUF would drive a power sales CAGR of ~35%. Rising share of merchant-C&I volumes (20% by FY30) should support realizations, leading to ~35% consol. gross revenue CAGR, while concentrated development—mostly in the high-yield Khavda asset—should further optimize capex-opex efficiency, boosting its cost leadership and industry-leading metrics (EBITDAM, asset turnover) and helping it secure more PPAs competitively,” said Emkay Global in its report.

The domestic brokerage firm believes that AGEL is a long-term story to play the renewable energy transition in India, as the country boasts of strong demand as well as low-cost and available resources for utility-scale projects.


Analysts at Emkay Global also stated that they have valued the stock conservatively as a like-to-like comparison with the local and global peers is not possible and the company’s growth profile is also more aggressive.

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Calling the company a low-cost leader which has a well-secured growth path with resource-rich sites and evacuation visibility, Emkay Global’s report stated that the resource yield in the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan is one of the highest globally, with 2,060kWh/sqmtr of solar irradiance and 8mtr/sec wind speed which renders 33% solar and >35% wind CUF.

However, the brokerage firm has also mentioned project execution, policy, equipment inflation, technology, and resource yield-related factors as the key risks to the growth of the company.

The shares of Adani Green Energy have gained 84% in the last one year and were trading flat at Rs 1,786.45 on BSE around 2:30 pm today.

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