Commodity Radar: Copper prices fall 20% from peak. Is it a sign of a shift in fundamentals?

Copper’s stellar 2025 rally, which extended through January, has lost momentum, with the red metal sliding nearly 20% from its peak. February contracts fell 1.5% on the Multi-Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) on Tuesday to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,179.35, as profit booking intensified and sparked concerns over a possible shift in fundamentals.

Global cues were also weak. Copper declined 1.6% on COMEX and dropped 1.8% on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to $12,813.06 per tonne. Notably, February copper futures had earlier touched a lifetime high of Rs 1,480.30 on MCX.

Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President – Research at Religare Broking, views the recent decline, which began late last week, as a consolidation phase around the Rs 1,190–1,195 zone rather than a structural reversal. He ruled out any fundamental shift, maintaining that the broader long-term outlook remains intact.


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According to Mishra, a persistent global supply deficit and steady industrial demand should continue to support prices. The recent weakness, he said, is largely due to short-term demand concerns stemming from the closure of Chinese markets for the Lunar New Year holidays. Thin liquidity during this period may result in erratic price swings.

He also pointed out that rising inventories at LME warehouses have added to the selling pressure in recent weeks. However, he expects the downside to remain limited as long-term bullish fundamentals remain unchanged.

Technical outlook

Mishra noted that the February correction aligns with expectations of choppy trade. The sideways price action, instead of a sharp rally, reflects thin volumes during the Chinese holiday period, which has dampened sentiment.

He expects the short-term corrective phase to persist. A break below Rs 1,160 could drag prices toward the Rs 1,100–1,125 zone.

Trading strategy

Despite near-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains positive. Traders may consider fresh long positions in the February contract once prices stabilise above the intermediate resistance zone of Rs 1,220–1,225, targeting Rs 1,260–1,265, with a stop loss below Rs 1,198.

Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own and do not represent the views of The Economic Times.