BSE shares rise 2% ahead of Nifty 50 entry tomorrow. Top brokerages share mixed outlook

BSE shares rose over 2% on Tuesday as the stock prepares to enter the benchmark Nifty 50 index from Wednesday, September 30, replacing Wipro as part of the NSE’s semi-annual index rebalancing.

The inclusion is expected to bring significant passive buying interest in BSE. Axis Capital estimates that index funds could buy around 15.7 million BSE shares, translating into potential inflows of $657 million.

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BSE enters Nifty 50 with passive flow boost

BSE’s entry into the Nifty 50 follows a six-month average free-float market capitalisation of Rs 1,40,879 crore, which was at least 1.5 times that of Wipro, the smallest constituent in the eligible universe.

The index inclusion comes as brokerages remain divided on the stock’s outlook, with BSE’s growth opportunity weighed against regulatory changes and recent developments affecting trading activity.

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Macquarie initiated coverage on BSE last week with an Outperform rating and a target price of Rs 4,000. The brokerage tagged BSE as a ‘Challenger’, noting that the stock exchange is a share gainer in a market with a 12% total addressable market CAGR.

Macquarie expects the opportunity to support 16% revenue growth over FY26-30, with margins moving towards 70%. However, it sees the Closing Auction Session, or CAS, as a near-term drag.

Brokerages flag CAS, regulatory headwinds

Jefferies has a more cautious view on BSE, with an Underperform rating and a Rs 2,940 target price. The brokerage has flagged BSE’s exposure to domestic proprietary traders, who account for around 50% of notional turnover. It also sees headwinds from the STT hike, RBI’s bank guarantee norms and CAS.

Nuvama had downgraded BSE to Hold from Buy last month and cut its target price to Rs 3,240 from Rs 4,090, identifying three key headwinds converging in FY27.

According to Nuvama, the newly introduced CAS has created confusion among traders and affected participation. BSE’s index option premium volumes, or ADPTV, stood at Rs 18,100 crore, the lowest since January 2025.

The brokerage also flagged RBI’s bank guarantee norms and said BSE’s contract share of nearly 51.5% is already high, while ADPTV share remains lower at around 36%, limiting incremental upside from further share gains.

Disclaimer: This article has been written by Sakshi Kumari, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Sakshi Kumari and her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here.