Brave New World: Why we're staring at a recession; gold/oil ratio at all-time highs

Ritesh Jain, a Dalal Street veteran, trend watcher and Global Macro Investor, captures global macro investment opportunities and economic, business and financial trends with charts and commentaries in this space.

Don't focus solely on the stock market right now, it is largely a sideshow.

The credit markets are going to tell you much more in the next few weeks as to the long-term likelihood of continued equity volatility.

Why are we staring at a recession? Tourism directly supports 319m jobs worldwide. It generates 10.4% of global GDP. Over last 5 years, 1 in 5 new jobs globally created by tourism industry.

When long-run, multi-decade bull markets finally go exponential, it is usually (always?) the top. The similarities between the US long-bond log price charts above and NASDAQ at the peak of the dot.com bubble below, are visible bull markets finally go exponential, it is usually (always?) the top. The similarities between the US long-bond log price charts above and NASDAQ at the peak of the dot.com bubble below, are visible.

SPX vs. 1929 --- Informational Purposes Only!

"Companies that historically focused on share buybacks continue to underperform"

Gold/oil ratio at all-time highs: Energy prices plunging while the shiny one rises? Significant margin improvements likely ahead for Miners.

'Companies authorized around $122 billion in future buybacks through February, marking a nearly 50% drop from the same period a year ago and representing the slowest pace in three years.'